Sat, Feb 26, 2022·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Montréal Canadiens 2, Ottawa Senators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 19 | 113 | 010 | 232 |
| OTT | 09 | 111 | 07 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:47MTLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Ben Chiarot · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 1:23OTTColin WhitePPAssists: Connor Brown, Victor Mete · Snap, 0.25 xG1–1
- P2 14:21MTLArtturi LehkonenGWGAssists: Jake Evans · Slap, 0.10 xG2–1
Penalties (8)
- P2 0:31MTLBen Chiarot: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 7:15OTTArtem Zub: Interference2 min
- P2 7:44MTLBrendan Gallagher: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:16OTTAdam Gaudette: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:37MTLJake Evans: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:11MTLBrendan Gallagher: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:10OTTArtem Zub: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 16:49OTTBrady Tkachuk: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Evans won the faceoff against Stützle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestLehkonen – Evans – Pitlick8:25
xG 1.00–0.23 (81%)attempts 12–8goals 2–0
- Hoffman – Gallagher – Dauphin9:05
xG 0.93–0.32 (74%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Anderson – Suzuki – Caufield12:57
xG 0.75–0.57 (57%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Perreault – Pezzetta – Poehling5:00
xG 0.20–0.06 (77%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChiarot – Romanov15:15
xG 1.26–0.25 (84%)attempts 17–7goals 2–0
- Wideman – Schueneman13:08
xG 1.16–0.71 (62%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Petry – Kulak12:14
xG 0.60–0.33 (65%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Paul – Sanford8:14
xG 0.67–0.29 (70%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Gaudette – Tkachuk – Stützle3:48
xG 0.05–0.06 (45%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Ennis – White – Tkachuk2:05
xG 0.11–0.15 (42%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- White – Tkachuk – Stützle2:15
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Brannstrom2:06
xG 0.15–0.06 (71%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Mete – Zub4:43
xG 0.17–0.10 (63%)attempts 4–1goals 0–1
- Holden – Brown3:50
xG 0.27–0.28 (48%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).