Sat, Feb 26, 2022·FLA Live Arena, Sunrise
Edmonton Oilers 4, Florida Panthers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 17 | 39 | 06 | 422 |
| FLA | 219 | 016 | 112 | 347 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:14EDMDerek RyanAssists: Warren Foegele, Devin Shore · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 11:50FLAAnton LundellAssists: Frank Vatrano, Sam Reinhart · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 16:38FLAAleksander BarkovPPAssists: Anthony Duclair, Aaron Ekblad · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–2
- P2 7:29EDMDerek RyanAssists: Ryan McLeod, Markus Niemelainen · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 10:04EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–2
- P2 19:16EDMDerek RyanGWGAssists: Evander Kane, Connor McDavid · Tip-in, 0.09 xG4–2
- P3 15:51FLAAleksander BarkovPPAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Anthony Duclair · Slap, 0.22 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 16:21EDMLeon Draisaitl: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 0:58FLAMason Marchment: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 4:39EDMConnor McDavid: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:00FLAMacKenzie Weegar: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 15:23EDMLeon Draisaitl: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:58EDMEvander Kane: Cross checking2 min
- P3 15:45EDMDarnell Nurse: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Bennett
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestShore – Ryan – McLeod5:52
xG 0.18–0.11 (62%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Hyman – McDavid – McLeod5:24
xG 0.21–0.32 (39%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Hyman – Foegele – McDavid7:02
xG 0.41–0.56 (43%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Kane – Draisaitl – Yamamoto11:04
xG 0.22–0.79 (22%)attempts 5–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Nurse8:52
xG 0.65–0.27 (71%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Ceci – Niemelainen2:20
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Barrie – Lagesson2:11
xG 0.02–0.08 (17%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Barkov – Marchment9:41
xG 0.78–0.23 (78%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Huberdeau – Duclair – Bennett9:19
xG 0.41–0.14 (75%)attempts 16–5goals 0–1
- Reinhart – Vatrano – Lundell8:42
xG 0.57–0.33 (63%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Verhaeghe – Marchment – Lundell2:16
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMontour – Carlsson7:44
xG 0.67–0.11 (86%)attempts 11–4goals 1–1
- Weegar – Ekblad17:40
xG 1.02–0.58 (64%)attempts 20–14goals 0–1
- Montour – Forsling4:57
xG 0.57–0.46 (55%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).