Sat, Feb 26, 2022·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Washington Capitals 1, Philadelphia Flyers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 09 | 111 | 08 | 128 |
| PHI | 214 | 04 | 04 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:11PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Cam Atkinson, Joel Farabee · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 18:38PHICam AtkinsonGWGAssists: Scott Laughton, Rasmus Ristolainen · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 6:53WSHT.J. OshiePPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Snap, 0.15 xG1–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:30PHIIsaac Ratcliffe: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:30PHIZack MacEwen: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:30WSHTom Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:30PHIZack MacEwen: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:39PHIIsaac Ratcliffe: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 11:20WSHNic Dowd: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:31WSHMartin Fehérváry: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOshie – Backstrom – Sheary7:06
xG 0.61–0.12 (84%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Hagelin – Dowd – Hathaway9:00
xG 0.36–0.03 (91%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Oshie – Eller – McMichael4:03
xG 0.07–0.01 (83%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Backstrom – Wilson – Snively3:20
xG 0.15–0.13 (53%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Jensen16:40
xG 0.71–0.32 (69%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Kempny11:57
xG 0.58–0.32 (64%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
- Carlson – Fehérváry15:54
xG 0.44–0.63 (41%)attempts 16–14goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestBrassard – van Riemsdyk – Mayhew7:44
xG 0.62–0.06 (91%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Brown – MacEwen – Ratcliffe6:15
xG 0.00–0.13 (3%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Laughton – Lindblom – Konecny10:10
xG 0.15–0.32 (32%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Giroux – Atkinson – Farabee13:46
xG 0.29–0.53 (36%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Seeler7:57
xG 0.29–0.18 (62%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Ristolainen – Sanheim19:04
xG 0.47–0.58 (45%)attempts 18–17goals 0–0
- Braun – Provorov17:37
xG 0.59–0.73 (45%)attempts 12–19goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).