Sat, Feb 26, 2022·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
New York Rangers 0, Pittsburgh Penguins 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 012 | 05 | 010 | 027 |
| PIT | 06 | 09 | 111 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 5:09PITEvgeni MalkinPPGWGAssists: Bryan Rust, Sidney Crosby · Slap, 0.18 xG0–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:50PITEvan Rodrigues: Holding2 min
- P1 13:43NYRChris Kreider: Holding2 min
- P1 0:00NYRKevin Rooney: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00PITEvgeni Malkin: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:48PITEvgeni Malkin: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:48NYRKevin Rooney: Cross checking2 min
- P2 12:33PITJohn Marino: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:33NYRDryden Hunt: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:35NYRRyan Lindgren: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 8:20PITMarcus Pettersson: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestStrome – Hunt – Panarin10:46
xG 0.43–0.30 (59%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Lafrenière10:16
xG 0.30–0.29 (51%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- McKegg – Gauthier – Barron6:01
xG 0.03–0.17 (14%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Reaves – Goodrow – Rooney10:16
xG 0.09–0.33 (21%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Trouba – Miller13:28
xG 0.65–0.70 (48%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Jones – Schneider13:04
xG 0.12–0.34 (26%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Fox – Lindgren14:49
xG 0.04–0.48 (8%)attempts 3–16goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rust – Guentzel11:50
xG 0.58–0.32 (65%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Malkin – Kapanen – Heinen9:41
xG 0.42–0.19 (68%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Boyle – Simon – Aston-Reese6:21
xG 0.10–0.01 (88%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Carter – McGinn – Rodrigues10:30
xG 0.28–0.31 (48%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRuhwedel – Friedman10:02
xG 0.43–0.01 (97%)attempts 12–1goals 0–0
- Letang – Dumoulin17:29
xG 0.63–0.40 (62%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Pettersson – Marino14:16
xG 0.58–0.49 (54%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).