Sat, Feb 26, 2022·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Colorado Avalanche 3, Vegas Golden Knights 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 16 | 012 | 23 | 321 |
| VGK | 215 | 010 | 011 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:07VGKChandler StephensonAssists: Jack Eichel, Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–1
- P1 7:10COLAndre BurakovskyAssists: Alex Newhook, Samuel Girard · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 8:31VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Reilly Smith · Slap, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 5:40COLJ.T. CompherAssists: Jack Johnson, Logan O'Connor · Deflected, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 6:06COLNathan MacKinnonGWGAssists: Cale Makar, Mikko Rantanen · Slap, 0.05 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:07VGKKeegan Kolesar: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:18COLGabriel Landeskog: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:11VGKNicolas Roy: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:00COLMikko Rantanen: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:00VGKAlex Pietrangelo: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Marchessault won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Landeskog – Nichushkin10:47
xG 0.54–0.45 (54%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
- Helm – Aube-Kubel – Newhook2:36
xG 0.09–0.08 (52%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen2:26
xG 0.06–0.06 (52%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Compher – O'Connor – Newhook6:09
xG 0.16–0.41 (28%)attempts 3–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Murray8:01
xG 0.40–0.34 (54%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Toews – Girard2:05
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Johnson – Girard12:11
xG 0.30–0.40 (43%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Karlsson – Marchessault10:54
xG 0.73–0.31 (70%)attempts 17–4goals 1–1
- Dadonov – Stephenson – Eichel13:34
xG 0.50–0.34 (60%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Kolesar – Howden – Rondbjerg6:28
xG 0.10–0.11 (46%)attempts 1–5goals 0–1
- Carrier – Amadio – Roy10:43
xG 0.27–0.36 (43%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Theodore15:07
xG 0.72–0.29 (72%)attempts 14–8goals 2–1
- Pietrangelo – Theodore3:42
xG 0.17–0.03 (84%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Pietrangelo – Hutton11:24
xG 0.46–0.34 (57%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).