Sat, Feb 26, 2022·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
New York Islanders 2, Los Angeles Kings 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 07 | 18 | 113 | 228 |
| LAK | 211 | 216 | 19 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:43LAKPhillip DanaultAssists: Trevor Moore, Tobias Bjornfot · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 7:51LAKMatt RoyAssists: Anze Kopitar, Alex Iafallo · Snap, 0.15 xG0–2
- P2 0:56LAKQuinton ByfieldGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.09 xG0–3
- P2 9:47NYIAnders LeeAssists: Noah Dobson, Mathew Barzal · Snap, 0.09 xG1–3
- P2 19:31LAKBrendan LemieuxAssists: Arthur Kaliyev, Matt Roy · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–4
- P3 18:44NYIJean-Gabriel PageauAssists: Noah Dobson, Sebastian Aho · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–4
- P3 19:43LAKTrevor MooreENAssists: Viktor Arvidsson · Wrist, 0.58 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:10NYIJean-Gabriel Pageau: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:13NYICasey Cizikas: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:21NYIKieffer Bellows: Illegal check to head2 min
- P2 5:46LAKArthur Kaliyev: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:15LAKSean Durzi: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:56LAKDrew Doughty: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:43NYIBrock Nelson: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:23NYICasey Cizikas: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Nelson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNelson – Beauvillier – Bellows6:45
xG 0.71–0.11 (87%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Lee – Pageau – Wahlstrom5:22
xG 0.45–0.32 (59%)attempts 6–5goals 1–1
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas8:00
xG 0.08–0.16 (33%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Parise – Palmieri – Barzal3:51
xG 0.12–0.68 (15%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestAho – Dobson4:58
xG 0.52–0.12 (81%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Mayfield – Pelech9:48
xG 0.63–0.60 (51%)attempts 8–15goals 0–2
- Pulock – Dobson2:39
xG 0.05–0.17 (22%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestDanault – Arvidsson – Moore9:07
xG 0.83–0.43 (66%)attempts 12–8goals 1–1
- Lemieux – Lizotte – Kaliyev6:30
xG 0.46–0.20 (69%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Brown – Grundstrom – Byfield9:19
xG 0.43–0.21 (67%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Kopitar – Kempe – Iafallo11:25
xG 0.58–0.98 (37%)attempts 13–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMaatta – Roy13:25
xG 0.72–0.05 (94%)attempts 15–5goals 3–0
- Doughty – Anderson16:48
xG 0.93–0.79 (54%)attempts 22–12goals 0–1
- Durzi – Bjornfot10:42
xG 0.45–0.90 (33%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).