Sun, Feb 27, 2022·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Edmonton Oilers 1, Carolina Hurricanes 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 08 | 116 | 06 | 130 |
| CAR | 216 | 06 | 07 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:57CARTeuvo TeravainenAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Jalen Chatfield · Snap, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 16:53CARSebastian AhoPPGWGAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Andrei Svechnikov · Snap, 0.14 xG0–2
- P2 4:26EDMDerek RyanUnassisted · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:27EDMTyson Barrie: Interference2 min
- P1 4:41CARVincent Trocheck: Roughing2 min
- P1 4:41EDMRyan McLeod: Cross checking2 min
- P1 5:40CARBrady Skjei: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 13:07EDMTyson Barrie: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 15:57EDMTyler Benson: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 19:23CARAndrei Svechnikov: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:01CARJalen Chatfield: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Foegele – McDavid10:00
xG 0.49–0.11 (82%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Perlini – Ryan – McLeod2:57
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Kane – Draisaitl – Benson4:56
xG 0.03–0.10 (24%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Sceviour – Kane – Draisaitl5:37
xG 0.02–0.40 (5%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Nurse11:14
xG 0.72–0.16 (82%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Ceci – Lagesson2:15
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 1–0
- Bouchard – Broberg4:11
xG 0.21–0.02 (93%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestTeravainen – Aho – Svechnikov12:01
xG 0.80–0.41 (66%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Staal – Niederreiter – Fast11:54
xG 0.41–0.10 (80%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Martinook – Lorentz2:33
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Martinook – Lorentz – Kotkaniemi3:51
xG 0.05–0.34 (14%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Pesce15:26
xG 0.92–0.49 (65%)attempts 18–11goals 0–0
- Slavin – Bear13:02
xG 0.28–0.28 (50%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Cole – Chatfield10:38
xG 0.33–0.68 (33%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).