Tue, Mar 1, 2022·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Detroit Red Wings 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 18 | 08 | 213 | 01 | 330 |
| DET | 011 | 19 | 214 | 17 | 441 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:02CARSebastian AhoPPAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Teuvo Teravainen · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–0
- P2 12:00DETCarter RowneyAssists: Sam Gagner, Adam Erne · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–1
- P3 2:45DETMichael RasmussenAssists: Jordan Oesterle, Filip Zadina · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 7:06CARJesper FastAssists: Brett Pesce · Deflected, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 16:12CARJordan StaalAssists: Brady Skjei, Nino Niederreiter · Backhand, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 16:50DETDylan LarkinUnassisted · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–3
- OT 4:52DETLucas RaymondPPGWGAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi, Moritz Seider · Wrist, 0.29 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:46CARBrett Pesce: Interference2 min
- P1 6:19CARBrady Skjei: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:48DETDylan Larkin: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 16:09DETMarc Staal: Holding2 min
- P2 4:07CARSebastian Aho: Interference2 min
- OT 3:13CARNino Niederreiter: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rowney won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestTeravainen – Aho – Svechnikov15:14
xG 1.19–0.25 (83%)attempts 20–6goals 0–0
- Lorentz – Kotkaniemi – Jarvis5:04
xG 0.13–0.08 (63%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Martinook – Jarvis6:00
xG 0.18–0.47 (27%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Staal – Niederreiter – Fast11:31
xG 0.35–0.72 (33%)attempts 7–13goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – Bear15:10
xG 0.73–0.43 (63%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Cole – Bear2:37
xG 0.14–0.14 (50%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Cole – Chatfield9:20
xG 0.58–0.62 (48%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestGagner – Rowney – Erne9:29
xG 0.56–0.22 (72%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Bertuzzi – Fabbri – Suter10:59
xG 0.93–0.80 (54%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Larkin – Raymond11:51
xG 0.55–0.54 (50%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Rasmussen – Veleno – Zadina8:39
xG 0.43–0.45 (49%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestOesterle – Hronek15:22
xG 1.34–0.84 (62%)attempts 15–16goals 1–0
- Staal – Stecher16:27
xG 0.40–0.44 (47%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Leddy – Seider15:42
xG 0.71–0.84 (46%)attempts 11–15goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).