Tue, Mar 1, 2022·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Edmonton Oilers 3, Philadelphia Flyers 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 110 | 111 | 111 | 332 |
| PHI | 013 | 012 | 014 | 039 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:41EDMLeon DraisaitlPPGWGAssists: Darnell Nurse, Connor McDavid · Snap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 15:10EDMKailer YamamotoAssists: Evander Kane · Backhand, 0.21 xG2–0
- P3 18:20EDMConnor McDavidENAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman · Wrist, 0.76 xG3–0
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:31PHIScott Laughton: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:00EDMKailer Yamamoto: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:09EDMMikko Koskinen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 17:21PHIOskar Lindblom: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 2:42PHIOskar Lindblom: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:04PHITravis Konecny: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:20PHIRasmus Ristolainen: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Laughton won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Foegele – McDavid11:52
xG 0.55–0.28 (66%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Ryan – Benson – McLeod3:29
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Malone – Ryan – McLeod3:12
xG 0.18–0.13 (58%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Kane – Draisaitl – Yamamoto12:40
xG 0.53–1.12 (32%)attempts 10–21goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Bouchard6:02
xG 1.02–0.02 (98%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Ceci – Niemelainen6:24
xG 0.57–0.01 (98%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Ceci – Nurse3:33
xG 0.20–0.04 (83%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Atkinson – Farabee12:13
xG 0.91–0.07 (93%)attempts 21–5goals 0–0
- Brassard – Lindblom – Mayhew3:45
xG 0.16–0.09 (64%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Brown – MacEwen – Ratcliffe5:19
xG 0.02–0.12 (11%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Laughton – Konecny3:26
xG 0.00–0.22 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRistolainen – Sanheim17:04
xG 1.00–0.58 (63%)attempts 25–11goals 0–1
- Braun – Provorov14:31
xG 0.50–0.49 (51%)attempts 18–15goals 0–0
- Yandle – Seeler10:46
xG 0.24–1.10 (18%)attempts 7–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).