Tue, Mar 1, 2022·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Calgary Flames 5, Minnesota Wild 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 29 | 110 | 28 | 527 |
| MIN | 012 | 110 | 011 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:12CGYMatthew TkachukPPAssists: Elias Lindholm, Tyler Toffoli · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 12:42CGYAndrew MangiapaneGWGAssists: Mikael Backlund, Blake Coleman · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–0
- P2 8:32MINMarcus FolignoAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Dmitry Kulikov · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 8:53CGYElias LindholmAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Johnny Gaudreau · Slap, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 0:33CGYTyler ToffoliPPAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Rasmus Andersson · Tip-in, 0.14 xG4–1
- P3 17:30CGYMikael BacklundENAssists: Andrew Mangiapane, Noah Hanifin · Wrist, 0.70 xG5–1
Penalties (13)
- P1 0:24MINAlex Goligoski: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 3:13CGYSean Monahan: Cross checking2 min
- P1 13:48MINRyan Hartman: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:48CGYNikita Zadorov: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:07CGYMilan Lucic: Interference2 min
- P1 19:21CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 19:21MINBrandon Duhaime: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 13:56CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:56MINBrandon Duhaime: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:56CGYOliver Kylington: Holding2 min
- P2 15:07MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 18:57MINMatt Boldy: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 9:17CGYBrett Ritchie: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Hartman
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestLucic – Toffoli – Monahan9:54
xG 0.33–0.19 (63%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Mangiapane10:01
xG 0.28–0.41 (41%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Richardson – Lewis – Ritchie7:45
xG 0.05–0.19 (22%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk9:29
xG 0.19–0.71 (21%)attempts 9–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Kylington13:12
xG 0.39–0.15 (72%)attempts 18–8goals 1–0
- Hanifin – Andersson11:06
xG 0.17–0.31 (35%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Gudbranson – Zadorov12:46
xG 0.37–0.69 (35%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Fiala – Boldy11:41
xG 0.57–0.20 (74%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov9:28
xG 0.31–0.14 (69%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1
- Foligno – Eriksson Ek – Duhaime6:50
xG 0.20–0.07 (75%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Dewar – Sturm5:18
xG 0.14–0.24 (37%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Brodin14:14
xG 0.60–0.24 (72%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Goligoski – Spurgeon9:50
xG 0.27–0.27 (50%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Merrill – Addison10:28
xG 0.22–0.22 (50%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).