Tue, Mar 1, 2022·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Montréal Canadiens 4, Winnipeg Jets 8
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 314 | 110 | 011 | 435 |
| WPG | 46 | 111 | 313 | 830 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:21WPGEvgeny SvechnikovAssists: Nate Schmidt, Kyle Connor · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 5:57WPGNate SchmidtAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Evgeny Svechnikov · Slap, 0.02 xG0–2
- P1 8:46WPGAdam LowryAssists: Dylan DeMelo · Backhand, 0.19 xG0–3
- P1 9:13WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Kyle Connor · Snap, 0.17 xG0–4
- P1 11:18MTLJosh AndersonAssists: Jeff Petry · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–4
- P1 17:00MTLJosh AndersonPPAssists: Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–4
- P1 18:28MTLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Jake Evans · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–4
- P2 4:08MTLJosh AndersonAssists: Ryan Poehling · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–4
- P2 17:17WPGAndrew CoppPPGWGAssists: Neal Pionk, Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–5
- P3 2:46WPGMark ScheifelePPAssists: Blake Wheeler, Kyle Connor · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–6
- P3 5:49WPGPierre-Luc DuboisPPAssists: Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–7
- P3 17:26WPGPaul StastnyPPAssists: Adam Lowry, Andrew Copp · Snap, 0.20 xG4–8
Penalties (17)
- P1 6:35WPGDylan DeMelo: Interference2 min
- P1 7:08MTLJosh Anderson: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:10WPGBrenden Dillon: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:54MTLBrett Kulak: Holding2 min
- P1 15:52WPGJosh Morrissey: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:58WPGNathan Beaulieu: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:31MTLJosh Anderson: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:57WPGDominic Toninato: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:41MTLJeff Petry: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:59WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Penalty shot slash on breakaway0 min
- P3 1:41MTLBrendan Gallagher: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 5:11MTLBrendan Gallagher: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:24WPGNeal Pionk: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:00WPGNeal Pionk: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:41WPGMark Scheifele: Fighting5 min
- P3 16:41MTLChris Wideman: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P3 16:41MTLCole Caufield: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dauphin won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPerreault – Armia – Poehling4:45
xG 0.32–0.01 (98%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Anderson – Suzuki – Caufield10:45
xG 0.37–0.45 (45%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
- Lehkonen – Evans – Pitlick6:53
xG 0.20–0.34 (37%)attempts 3–5goals 1–1
- Hoffman – Gallagher – Dauphin7:57
xG 0.14–0.30 (31%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChiarot – Romanov9:53
xG 0.98–0.27 (79%)attempts 10–10goals 1–1
- Petry – Kulak13:02
xG 0.51–0.15 (77%)attempts 11–4goals 2–1
- Romanov – Schueneman2:30
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestConnor – Svechnikov – Dubois8:28
xG 0.60–0.24 (71%)attempts 10–5goals 2–0
- Toninato – Harkins – Brooks6:20
xG 0.06–0.08 (40%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Lowry – Copp – Vesalainen9:01
xG 0.32–0.37 (47%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Stastny – Scheifele7:02
xG 0.08–0.17 (31%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBeaulieu – Schmidt9:46
xG 0.26–0.18 (59%)attempts 7–5goals 2–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey11:04
xG 0.68–0.85 (44%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Dillon – Pionk11:41
xG 0.27–0.52 (34%)attempts 6–12goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).