Wed, Mar 2, 2022·Madison Square Garden, New York
St. Louis Blues 3, New York Rangers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 09 | 310 | 013 | 332 |
| NYR | 18 | 17 | 314 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:55NYRAlexis LafrenièreAssists: Adam Fox · Wrist, 0.32 xG0–1
- P2 16:36NYRRyan StromeAssists: Artemi Panarin, Jacob Trouba · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 17:30STLRyan O'ReillyAssists: Brandon Saad, David Perron · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 18:37STLIvan BarbashevAssists: Jordan Kyrou · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 19:44STLDavid PerronAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Colton Parayko · Snap, 0.16 xG3–2
- P3 7:27NYRPatrik NemethAssists: Ryan Strome, Dryden Hunt · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–3
- P3 11:40NYRChris KreiderPPGWGAssists: Adam Fox, Artemi Panarin · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–4
- P3 18:08NYRArtemi PanarinENAssists: Adam Fox · Wrist, 0.64 xG3–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:19NYRDryden Hunt: Boarding2 min
- P1 5:35STLVladimir Tarasenko: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:20NYRRyan Reaves: Interference2 min
- P3 9:52STLColton Parayko: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 11:57NYRJacob Trouba: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:57STLBrayden Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P3 15:33NYRAlexis Lafrenière: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thomas won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestPerron – O'Reilly – Saad9:14
xG 0.71–0.20 (78%)attempts 12–5goals 2–0
- Bozak – Sundqvist – Joshua5:27
xG 0.19–0.06 (75%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Schenn – Barbashev – Kyrou10:09
xG 0.31–0.40 (44%)attempts 13–10goals 1–1
- Tarasenko – Buchnevich – Thomas10:52
xG 0.12–0.81 (13%)attempts 8–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Krug16:03
xG 0.97–0.81 (55%)attempts 20–11goals 1–1
- Bortuzzo – Walman8:09
xG 0.46–0.55 (46%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Parayko – Mikkola17:35
xG 0.43–0.76 (36%)attempts 13–18goals 1–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestStrome – Hunt – Panarin13:01
xG 0.57–0.28 (67%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Lafrenière12:01
xG 0.84–0.61 (58%)attempts 11–12goals 1–1
- Reaves – McKegg – Goodrow6:37
xG 0.58–0.57 (50%)attempts 6–12goals 0–2
- Reaves – Goodrow – Rooney3:18
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Miller15:31
xG 0.98–0.58 (63%)attempts 19–12goals 1–1
- Fox – Lindgren16:34
xG 0.73–0.42 (63%)attempts 11–13goals 1–2
- Nemeth – Schneider12:07
xG 0.59–0.95 (38%)attempts 10–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).