Thu, Mar 3, 2022·UBS Arena, Elmont
Vancouver Canucks 4, New York Islanders 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 013 | 216 | 29 | 438 |
| NYI | 08 | 29 | 110 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:37NYINoah DobsonAssists: Brock Nelson, Andy Greene · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 7:19VANBrad HuntUnassisted · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 11:50VANJ.T. MillerAssists: Brock Boeser, Quinn Hughes · Tip-in, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 18:20NYIKyle PalmieriAssists: Adam Pelech, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Slap, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 1:49NYIAnthony BeauvillierUnassisted · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–3
- P3 9:34VANNils HoglanderAssists: Conor Garland, Quinn Hughes · Tip-in, 0.06 xG3–3
- P3 10:19VANVasily PodkolzinGWGAssists: Bo Horvat · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–3
Penalties (2)
- P1 6:25NYISebastian Aho: Holding2 min
- P1 18:03NYIAnders Lee: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Lammikko
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestGarland – Pettersson – Hoglander9:56
xG 0.67–0.08 (89%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Miller – Pearson – Boeser12:25
xG 0.44–0.20 (68%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
- Motte – Lammikko – Highmore11:33
xG 0.71–0.50 (59%)attempts 14–18goals 1–0
- Chiasson – Horvat – Podkolzin9:50
xG 0.26–0.14 (66%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Hunt14:08
xG 0.96–0.75 (56%)attempts 19–16goals 1–1
- Myers – Ekman-Larsson16:49
xG 0.45–0.30 (60%)attempts 12–19goals 1–1
- Schenn – Hughes17:13
xG 0.46–0.40 (53%)attempts 15–13goals 1–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas10:03
xG 0.14–0.13 (52%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Bailey – Bellows – Wahlstrom6:03
xG 0.11–0.10 (51%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Parise – Palmieri – Pageau12:07
xG 0.37–0.51 (42%)attempts 12–14goals 1–2
- Lee – Nelson – Beauvillier14:11
xG 0.73–1.20 (38%)attempts 18–17goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestMayfield – Pelech9:03
xG 0.32–0.19 (62%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
- Pelech – Pulock8:33
xG 0.19–0.09 (67%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Greene – Dobson13:42
xG 0.40–0.62 (39%)attempts 20–18goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).