Thu, Mar 3, 2022·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Minnesota Wild 5, Philadelphia Flyers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 212 | 112 | 214 | 538 |
| PHI | 210 | 26 | 014 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:49PHIScott LaughtonUnassisted · Backhand, 0.19 xG0–1
- P1 11:50MINRyan HartmanAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Kirill Kaprizov · Tip-in, 0.19 xG1–1
- P1 13:16PHIPatrick BrownAssists: Zack MacEwen, Max Willman · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P1 19:56MINFrederick GaudreauUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 5:07PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Scott Laughton · Snap, 0.33 xG2–3
- P2 9:04MINRyan HartmanAssists: Kevin Fiala, Calen Addison · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–3
- P2 19:14PHIJames van RiemsdykPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Keith Yandle · Tip-in, 0.17 xG3–4
- P3 12:16MINMatt BoldyAssists: Kevin Fiala · Snap, 0.18 xG4–4
- P3 12:41MINJonas BrodinGWGAssists: Dmitry Kulikov · Slap, 0.02 xG5–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 16:07MINCalen Addison: Interference2 min
- P2 18:20MINNick Bjugstad: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 1:57PHITravis Konecny: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 4:23MINMarcus Foligno: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Laughton won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov13:44
xG 0.99–0.23 (81%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Gaudreau – Fiala – Boldy10:25
xG 0.55–0.25 (69%)attempts 13–9goals 3–1
- Bjugstad – Dewar – Sturm4:18
xG 0.33–0.12 (74%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Foligno – Eriksson Ek – Duhaime8:39
xG 0.21–0.52 (28%)attempts 9–2goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestMerrill – Addison10:22
xG 0.88–0.54 (62%)attempts 15–6goals 2–1
- Goligoski – Spurgeon14:02
xG 0.52–0.32 (62%)attempts 16–12goals 0–1
- Kulikov – Merrill2:46
xG 0.16–0.00 (99%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Willman – MacEwen7:30
xG 0.28–0.04 (86%)attempts 5–4goals 1–1
- Laughton – Lindblom – Konecny12:55
xG 0.63–0.40 (61%)attempts 11–12goals 2–1
- Brassard – van Riemsdyk – Mayhew8:22
xG 0.01–0.36 (3%)attempts 3–13goals 0–1
- Giroux – Atkinson – Farabee11:36
xG 0.15–1.01 (13%)attempts 7–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRistolainen – Provorov2:32
xG 0.53–0.06 (90%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Sanheim – Provorov2:31
xG 0.30–0.03 (92%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Seeler – Provorov4:27
xG 0.00–0.21 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).