Thu, Mar 3, 2022·Capital One Arena, Washington
Carolina Hurricanes 0, Washington Capitals 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 06 | 013 | 017 | 036 |
| WSH | 18 | 216 | 19 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:33WSHEvgeny KuznetsovPPGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 8:30WSHMartin FehérváryAssists: Conor Sheary, Garnet Hathaway · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 15:05WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: John Carlson, T.J. Oshie · Slap, 0.05 xG0–3
- P3 19:02WSHDmitry OrlovAssists: Conor Sheary, Justin Schultz · Slap, 0.02 xG0–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:51CARVincent Trocheck: High sticking2 min
- P1 12:11WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:55CAREthan Bear: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 17:36CARBrady Skjei: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:09CARSebastian Aho: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:42CARDerek Stepan: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:48WSHGarnet Hathaway: Interference2 min
- P2 18:44WSHAlex Ovechkin: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:53CARBrady Skjei: Elbowing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestTrocheck – Necas – Kotkaniemi11:23
xG 0.63–0.20 (76%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Stepan – Martinook – Lorentz7:27
xG 0.64–0.28 (70%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Staal – Niederreiter – Fast8:23
xG 0.26–0.26 (50%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Aho – Svechnikov9:30
xG 0.17–0.45 (27%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Pesce12:38
xG 1.09–0.34 (76%)attempts 19–5goals 0–0
- Cole – Bear3:10
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Cole – Chatfield10:49
xG 0.43–0.35 (55%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestDowd – Sheary – Hathaway7:31
xG 0.42–0.20 (68%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Oshie – Backstrom – Mantha9:06
xG 0.47–0.40 (54%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Eller – Sprong – McMichael6:26
xG 0.16–0.18 (48%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson9:41
xG 0.09–0.86 (10%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Fehérváry12:15
xG 0.54–0.37 (60%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Schultz – Orlov2:46
xG 0.02–0.08 (22%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Schultz – van Riemsdyk9:36
xG 0.18–0.35 (34%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).