Thu, Mar 3, 2022·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Montréal Canadiens 5, Calgary Flames 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 116 | 17 | 210 | 12 | 535 |
| CGY | 19 | 27 | 118 | 00 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:06CGYBlake ColemanAssists: Andrew Mangiapane, Mikael Backlund · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 19:34MTLJeff PetryAssists: Nick Suzuki, Artturi Lehkonen · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 12:08CGYJohnny GaudreauUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 15:40CGYAndrew MangiapaneSHAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Jacob Markstrom · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–3
- P2 17:44MTLNick SuzukiPPAssists: Mike Hoffman, Cole Caufield · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–3
- P3 4:38MTLBen ChiarotAssists: Mike Hoffman, Nick Suzuki · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–3
- P3 17:15MTLMike HoffmanAssists: Laurent Dauphin, Ben Chiarot · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–3
- P3 19:32CGYElias LindholmAssists: Andrew Mangiapane, Rasmus Andersson · Wrist, 0.44 xG4–4
- OT 1:03MTLBen ChiarotGWGAssists: Rem Pitlick, Mike Hoffman · Wrist, 0.22 xG5–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 13:34CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:00CGYChris Tanev: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:24MTLBrett Kulak: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:52MTLMike Hoffman: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:42CGYNoah Hanifin: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:54CGYBrad Richardson: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:09CGYJacob Markstrom: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 17:13CGYNikita Zadorov: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:08MTLKale Clague: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Suzuki
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestArmia – Pezzetta – Poehling3:02
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Gallagher – Dauphin9:08
xG 0.49–0.31 (61%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Anderson – Suzuki – Caufield10:35
xG 0.37–0.48 (43%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – Evans – Pitlick3:44
xG 0.01–0.21 (3%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Clague5:17
xG 0.55–0.07 (88%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Romanov11:58
xG 0.52–0.76 (41%)attempts 12–13goals 1–1
- Petry – Kulak12:32
xG 0.74–0.99 (43%)attempts 13–18goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestRichardson – Lewis – Ritchie6:34
xG 0.59–0.01 (99%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk9:27
xG 0.48–0.33 (59%)attempts 9–5goals 1–1
- Backlund – Coleman – Mangiapane10:59
xG 0.42–0.36 (54%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Lucic – Toffoli – Monahan8:01
xG 0.26–0.72 (26%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHanifin – Andersson11:39
xG 0.85–0.43 (67%)attempts 15–11goals 2–1
- Gudbranson – Zadorov9:56
xG 0.60–0.40 (60%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Tanev – Kylington12:45
xG 0.69–0.74 (48%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).