Thu, Mar 3, 2022·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Boston Bruins 5, Vegas Golden Knights 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 110 | 116 | 310 | 536 |
| VGK | 012 | 113 | 111 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:18BOSCraig SmithAssists: Trent Frederic, Derek Forbort · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 11:03BOSCraig SmithAssists: Charlie Coyle, Trent Frederic · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–0
- P2 17:34VGKJack EichelUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P3 8:14BOSDavid PastrnakGWGAssists: Trent Frederic, Erik Haula · Wrist, 0.33 xG3–1
- P3 14:39BOSCraig SmithAssists: Matt Grzelcyk, Brandon Carlo · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–1
- P3 16:38VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–2
- P3 18:20BOSDavid PastrnakENAssists: Erik Haula · Wrist, 0.78 xG5–2
Penalties (3)
- P1 6:40VGKZach Whitecloud: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:32BOSErik Haula: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:59BOSTomas Nosek: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Nosek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – DeBrusk10:14
xG 0.78–0.11 (88%)attempts 19–6goals 0–0
- Haula – Hall – Pastrnak11:54
xG 0.64–0.63 (50%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
- Foligno – Nosek – Froden8:07
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Smith – Coyle – Frederic11:46
xG 0.18–0.56 (25%)attempts 6–14goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestGrzelcyk – McAvoy2:02
xG 0.52–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Forbort – Carlo2:24
xG 0.43–0.06 (87%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Forbort – Clifton12:13
xG 0.54–0.19 (74%)attempts 16–8goals 2–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestCarrier – Amadio – Roy5:53
xG 0.17–0.07 (72%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Kolesar – Howden – Rondbjerg5:38
xG 0.20–0.31 (39%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault11:15
xG 0.26–0.39 (40%)attempts 9–11goals 0–2
- Carrier – Roy – Howden3:06
xG 0.01–0.23 (4%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Theodore7:54
xG 0.42–0.22 (66%)attempts 7–15goals 1–0
- Hutton – Hague2:06
xG 0.13–0.03 (80%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
- Hague – Whitecloud11:37
xG 0.43–0.47 (48%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).