Fri, Mar 4, 2022·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Detroit Red Wings 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 08 | 16 | 09 | 123 |
| TBL | 010 | 119 | 29 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:43TBLBrayden PointPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Nikita Kucherov · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 13:05DETRobby FabbriAssists: Moritz Seider, Tyler Bertuzzi · Tip-in, 0.27 xG1–1
- P3 10:21TBLMikhail SergachevPPGWGAssists: Victor Hedman, Ross Colton · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 19:58TBLSteven StamkosENAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.64 xG1–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 13:08DETRobby Fabbri: Holding2 min
- P1 16:53TBLPierre-Edouard Bellemare: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:09DETVladislav Namestnikov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 14:52TBLMikhail Sergachev: Holding2 min
- P3 8:25DETPius Suter: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 19:11DETLucas Raymond: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestRasmussen – Veleno – Zadina3:45
xG 0.17–0.03 (87%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Fabbri – Suter10:17
xG 0.71–0.61 (54%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Bertuzzi – Larkin – Raymond2:33
xG 0.15–0.05 (73%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Erne – Veleno – Zadina2:34
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Stecher4:21
xG 0.15–0.05 (73%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Staal – Stecher10:43
xG 0.49–0.50 (49%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Oesterle – Hronek14:01
xG 0.30–0.76 (28%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Stamkos – Cirelli13:27
xG 1.34–0.11 (92%)attempts 19–12goals 0–0
- Joseph – Katchouk – Colton7:47
xG 0.29–0.11 (72%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Palat – Kucherov – Point13:07
xG 0.69–0.68 (51%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Perry – Maroon – Bellemare6:34
xG 0.11–0.54 (18%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Cernak15:48
xG 0.99–0.36 (73%)attempts 17–13goals 0–0
- Hedman – Sergachev5:29
xG 0.55–0.24 (70%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Hedman – Rutta10:08
xG 0.51–0.40 (56%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).