Fri, Mar 4, 2022·Honda Center, Anaheim
Vegas Golden Knights 5, Anaheim Ducks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 19 | 416 | 010 | 535 |
| ANA | 15 | 212 | 17 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:47ANAJakob SilfverbergUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 7:00VGKBen HuttonAssists: Michael Amadio, Evgenii Dadonov · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 0:18VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: William Karlsson, Reilly Smith · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 2:23ANANicolas DeslauriersAssists: Cam Fowler, Derek Grant · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 3:49VGKNicolas RoyAssists: Shea Theodore, Zach Whitecloud · Backhand, 0.18 xG3–2
- P2 6:54VGKNicolas RoyAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Michael Amadio · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–2
- P2 9:44VGKMichael AmadioGWGAssists: Chandler Stephenson, William Carrier · Tip-in, 0.11 xG5–2
- P2 18:38ANATrevor ZegrasPPAssists: Rickard Rakell, Jamie Drysdale · Slap, 0.13 xG5–3
- P3 6:39ANATroy TerryPPAssists: Cam Fowler, Kevin Shattenkirk · Backhand, 0.13 xG5–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 8:57ANAKevin Shattenkirk: Interference2 min
- P1 13:57ANAKevin Shattenkirk: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 13:39VGKDylan Coghlan: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:15VGKShea Theodore: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 4:07ANARickard Rakell: Holding2 min
- P3 4:52VGKReilly Smith: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 13:43ANAHampus Lindholm: Interference2 min
- P3 19:43VGKChandler Stephenson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Karlsson won the faceoff against Lundeström
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Eichel – Roy10:27
xG 0.82–0.31 (73%)attempts 18–6goals 1–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault11:19
xG 0.35–0.22 (61%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Carrier – Amadio – Kolesar2:59
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Stephenson – Carrier – Amadio8:25
xG 0.38–0.52 (42%)attempts 9–14goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestTheodore – Whitecloud18:39
xG 1.07–0.76 (59%)attempts 20–16goals 2–1
- Hutton – Coghlan9:08
xG 0.24–0.30 (45%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Pietrangelo – Hague15:30
xG 0.60–0.73 (45%)attempts 13–19goals 2–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGrant – Deslauriers – Carrick7:47
xG 0.39–0.22 (64%)attempts 9–6goals 1–1
- Getzlaf – Henrique – Terry11:15
xG 0.55–0.42 (57%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
- Rakell – Milano – Zegras13:54
xG 0.41–0.57 (41%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Silfverberg – Steel – Lundeström8:53
xG 0.23–0.81 (22%)attempts 6–14goals 1–3
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Benoit10:12
xG 0.56–0.29 (66%)attempts 17–7goals 0–1
- Lindholm – Drysdale18:06
xG 0.79–0.85 (48%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Fowler3:09
xG 0.07–0.17 (30%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).