Sat, Mar 5, 2022·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Vancouver Canucks 6, Toronto Maple Leafs 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 212 | 111 | 36 | 629 |
| TOR | 110 | 312 | 016 | 438 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:48VANJ.T. MillerAssists: Tanner Pearson, Travis Hamonic · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 9:49TORJohn TavaresPPAssists: Mitch Marner, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 19:30VANTravis HamonicAssists: Brad Hunt, Bo Horvat · Tip-in, 0.00 xG2–1
- P2 4:12VANBrock BoeserPPAssists: J.T. Miller, Quinn Hughes · Wrist, 0.31 xG3–1
- P2 5:33TORNick RobertsonAssists: William Nylander, John Tavares · Snap, 0.08 xG3–2
- P2 8:52TORAuston MatthewsUnassisted · Snap, 0.12 xG3–3
- P2 12:06TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Timothy Liljegren, Michael Bunting · Slap, 0.03 xG3–4
- P3 1:03VANTanner PearsonAssists: Tyler Myers, Brock Boeser · Tip-in, 0.14 xG4–4
- P3 6:55VANAlex ChiassonGWGAssists: Bo Horvat, Vasily Podkolzin · Wrist, 0.10 xG5–4
- P3 19:40VANTyler MotteENAssists: Elias Pettersson, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Snap, 0.70 xG6–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 9:20VANMatthew Highmore: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 3:57TORTravis Dermott: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 12:45TORWayne Simmonds: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:03VANLuke Schenn: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lammikko won the faceoff against Spezza
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestGarland – Pettersson – Hoglander10:38
xG 0.39–0.26 (60%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Motte – Lammikko – Highmore9:01
xG 0.32–0.24 (57%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
- Miller – Pearson – Boeser11:45
xG 0.68–0.75 (48%)attempts 15–13goals 2–3
- Chiasson – Horvat – Podkolzin10:05
xG 0.61–0.79 (44%)attempts 12–17goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Hunt13:44
xG 0.83–0.60 (58%)attempts 14–10goals 2–0
- Schenn – Hughes15:16
xG 0.46–0.58 (44%)attempts 15–21goals 0–2
- Hamonic – Hughes2:12
xG 0.04–0.32 (12%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestBunting – Marner – Matthews14:52
xG 1.29–0.55 (70%)attempts 25–13goals 0–2
- Tavares – Nylander – Robertson10:44
xG 0.56–0.14 (80%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Tavares – Kerfoot – Nylander2:19
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Engvall – Kampf – Mikheyev10:02
xG 0.62–0.78 (44%)attempts 12–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestDermott – Lyubushkin13:46
xG 0.96–0.42 (70%)attempts 19–9goals 0–0
- Rielly – Liljegren13:44
xG 0.96–0.74 (56%)attempts 20–12goals 3–2
- Brodie – Holl16:31
xG 0.83–0.67 (55%)attempts 18–19goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).