Sat, Mar 5, 2022·FLA Live Arena, Sunrise
Detroit Red Wings 2, Florida Panthers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 19 | 04 | 112 | 225 |
| FLA | 316 | 310 | 013 | 639 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:10FLAMason MarchmentAssists: MacKenzie Weegar, Aleksander Barkov · Backhand, 0.20 xG0–1
- P1 7:16DETRobby FabbriAssists: Danny DeKeyser, Gustav Lindstrom · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 11:00FLAAnthony DuclairPPAssists: Sam Reinhart, Aleksander Barkov · Slap, 0.11 xG1–2
- P1 18:02FLAAnton LundellPPGWGAssists: Sam Bennett, Brandon Montour · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–3
- P2 7:54FLASam BennettAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, MacKenzie Weegar · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–4
- P2 11:01FLALucas CarlssonAssists: Carter Verhaeghe, Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–5
- P2 16:13FLAAnton LundellAssists: Frank Vatrano, Sam Reinhart · Snap, 0.06 xG1–6
- P3 14:46DETTyler BertuzziAssists: Joseph Veleno · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–6
Penalties (5)
- P1 10:09DETDylan Larkin: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 13:24FLAMason Marchment: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:36DETSam Gagner: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:32DETMarc Staal: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 5:49FLAEetu Luostarinen: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bennett won the faceoff against Veleno
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNamestnikov – Larkin – Raymond9:40
xG 0.99–0.74 (57%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
- Erne – Suter – Zadina10:07
xG 0.66–0.54 (55%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
- Larkin – Smith – Raymond3:29
xG 0.07–0.13 (33%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Gagner – Smith – Rasmussen7:10
xG 0.12–0.48 (21%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDeKeyser – Lindstrom12:59
xG 1.29–0.66 (66%)attempts 12–17goals 1–0
- Staal – Hronek12:43
xG 0.11–0.28 (29%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
- DeKeyser – Seider2:36
xG 0.02–0.20 (7%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestReinhart – Vatrano – Lundell11:18
xG 1.20–0.24 (83%)attempts 21–7goals 1–0
- Verhaeghe – Barkov – Marchment11:39
xG 0.64–0.21 (75%)attempts 10–2goals 2–1
- Hornqvist – Acciari – Luostarinen8:59
xG 0.22–0.06 (78%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Huberdeau – Duclair – Bennett10:28
xG 0.26–0.53 (33%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMontour – Carlsson16:56
xG 1.22–0.38 (76%)attempts 26–9goals 2–0
- Weegar – Montour2:00
xG 0.18–0.03 (86%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Weegar – Ekblad16:18
xG 1.24–1.23 (50%)attempts 18–10goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).