Sat, Mar 5, 2022·UBS Arena, Elmont
St. Louis Blues 1, New York Islanders 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 09 | 07 | 115 | 131 |
| NYI | 16 | 16 | 08 | 220 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:36NYIOliver WahlstromAssists: Adam Pelech, Ryan Pulock · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 1:04NYIBrock NelsonPPGWGAssists: Noah Dobson · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
- P3 17:08STLRobert ThomasAssists: Jordan Kyrou · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 0:25NYIBrock Nelson: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:55STLPavel Buchnevich: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 4:17NYICasey Cizikas: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P2 13:06NYIMatt Martin: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:06STLPavel Buchnevich: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:33STLNiko Mikkola: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:13NYICasey Cizikas: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:13STLIvan Barbashev: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:32STLKlim Kostin: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:32NYIScott Mayfield: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:18STLTyler Bozak: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nelson won the faceoff against Schenn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSaad – Kyrou – Thomas2:15
xG 0.36–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Saad – Sundqvist6:03
xG 0.17–0.05 (76%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Schenn – Kyrou – Thomas2:55
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Buchnevich – Barbashev4:45
xG 0.26–0.21 (55%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBortuzzo – Walman4:32
xG 0.58–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Parayko – Mikkola8:03
xG 0.32–0.13 (71%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Faulk – Walman5:35
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Nelson – Beauvillier10:03
xG 0.45–0.30 (60%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Pageau – Bellows9:49
xG 0.21–0.15 (58%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Parise – Koivula – Wahlstrom5:49
xG 0.16–0.37 (31%)attempts 3–9goals 1–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas11:50
xG 0.27–0.66 (29%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMayfield – Aho6:46
xG 0.25–0.03 (90%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Pelech – Pulock7:46
xG 0.43–0.23 (65%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Pulock – Aho2:49
xG 0.24–0.06 (79%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).