Sat, Mar 5, 2022·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Chicago Blackhawks 3, Philadelphia Flyers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 010 | 312 | 07 | 329 |
| PHI | 112 | 17 | 28 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:46PHIOskar LindblomAssists: Travis Sanheim, Kevin Hayes · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 0:24CHIAlex DeBrincatAssists: Jonathan Toews · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 12:39CHIDylan StromeAssists: Patrick Kane, Dominik Kubalik · Snap, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 15:28PHICam AtkinsonAssists: Joel Farabee · Snap, 0.18 xG2–2
- P2 18:15CHIDylan StromeUnassisted · Snap, 0.17 xG3–2
- P3 3:09PHIDerick BrassardAssists: Cam Atkinson, Joel Farabee · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–3
- P3 8:28PHICam AtkinsonGWGAssists: Joel Farabee · Snap, 0.06 xG3–4
Penalties (13)
- P1 6:12CHIConnor Murphy: Interference2 min
- P2 3:50CHITyler Johnson: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 15:28CHIJonathan Toews: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:28PHIDerick Brassard: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:28CHICalvin de Haan: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:49PHIRasmus Ristolainen: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:49CHIConnor Murphy: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:49PHITravis Konecny: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:49CHICaleb Jones: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:42PHIOskar Lindblom: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:42CHISeth Jones: Holding2 min
- P3 12:42PHIOskar Lindblom: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:34CHIDominik Kubalik: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Brassard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestCarpenter – Lafferty – Kurashev6:30
xG 0.11–0.05 (69%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Toews – Johnson – DeBrincat9:55
xG 0.37–0.32 (54%)attempts 11–8goals 1–2
- Toews – Kane – DeBrincat2:27
xG 0.03–0.12 (18%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Hagel – Entwistle – Dach7:11
xG 0.09–0.24 (29%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurphy – Jones14:07
xG 0.42–0.17 (71%)attempts 15–14goals 1–1
- Jones – Jones2:14
xG 0.11–0.06 (64%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- McCabe – Stillman10:52
xG 0.38–0.43 (47%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestBrassard – Atkinson – Farabee8:59
xG 0.36–0.09 (79%)attempts 11–6goals 3–0
- van Riemsdyk – Hayes – Lindblom6:34
xG 0.38–0.26 (59%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Giroux – Laughton – Konecny11:15
xG 0.29–0.29 (50%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Brown – Willman – MacEwen6:18
xG 0.39–0.54 (42%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBraun – Provorov16:05
xG 0.74–0.35 (68%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Yandle – Connauton8:30
xG 0.29–0.24 (55%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Ristolainen – Sanheim16:32
xG 0.60–0.80 (43%)attempts 17–19goals 3–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).