Sat, Mar 5, 2022·Capital One Arena, Washington
Seattle Kraken 2, Washington Capitals 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 110 | 19 | 012 | 231 |
| WSH | 26 | 113 | 26 | 525 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:30WSHTom WilsonAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 12:04WSHDmitry OrlovAssists: Nic Dowd, Nick Jensen · Slap, 0.06 xG0–2
- P1 16:56SEAJoonas DonskoiAssists: Riley Sheahan, Jamie Oleksiak · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 0:58SEAColin BlackwellAssists: Mason Appleton, Adam Larsson · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 11:48WSHConor ShearyPPGWGAssists: Tom Wilson, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–3
- P3 0:47WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: John Carlson, Nicklas Backstrom · Slap, 0.05 xG2–4
- P3 17:50WSHConor ShearyENUnassisted · Backhand, 0.79 xG2–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 14:20WSHJohn Carlson: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:32WSHGarnet Hathaway: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:55SEAJaden Schwartz: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:41SEACarson Soucy: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 8:40WSHGarnet Hathaway: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gourde won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestSheahan – Donskoi – Geekie8:41
xG 0.46–0.31 (60%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Eberle – Jarnkrok – McCann10:29
xG 0.17–0.07 (70%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Blackwell – Gourde – Appleton11:20
xG 0.17–0.24 (41%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Johansson – Schwartz – Wennberg10:16
xG 0.41–0.57 (41%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Oleksiak17:23
xG 1.01–0.57 (64%)attempts 22–10goals 2–0
- Soucy – Lauzon3:03
xG 0.10–0.13 (44%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Giordano – Soucy12:10
xG 0.26–0.42 (39%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestEller – Sheary – McMichael9:57
xG 0.55–0.46 (54%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Dowd – Hathaway – Jonsson-Fjallby9:55
xG 0.18–0.11 (63%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson11:04
xG 0.38–0.41 (48%)attempts 10–11goals 1–1
- Oshie – Backstrom – Mantha11:57
xG 0.25–0.37 (40%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – van Riemsdyk12:58
xG 0.33–0.13 (72%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Orlov – Jensen15:40
xG 0.46–0.47 (49%)attempts 12–12goals 2–0
- Carlson – Fehérváry14:46
xG 0.25–0.65 (28%)attempts 5–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).