Sat, Mar 5, 2022·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Montréal Canadiens 5, Edmonton Oilers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 29 | 110 | 210 | 529 |
| EDM | 110 | 112 | 08 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:58MTLCole CaufieldUnassisted · Snap, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 11:20EDMEvander KaneAssists: Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–1
- P1 19:21MTLBrendan GallagherPPAssists: Nick Suzuki, Chris Wideman · Snap, 0.33 xG2–1
- P2 5:37EDMRyan McLeodAssists: Zach Hyman, Evan Bouchard · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–2
- P2 10:17MTLNick SuzukiPPGWGAssists: Chris Wideman, Cole Caufield · Snap, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 10:15MTLArtturi LehkonenSHAssists: Brett Kulak, Nick Suzuki · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–2
- P3 16:11MTLMike HoffmanENAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Ben Chiarot · Snap, 0.70 xG5–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 17:39EDMEvander Kane: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:37MTLCole Caufield: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 8:25EDMWarren Foegele: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:22MTLMike Hoffman: Holding2 min
- P2 19:48MTLBen Chiarot: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:17EDMRyan McLeod: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:12EDMMike Smith: Delaying game2 min
- P3 9:06MTLBrendan Gallagher: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suzuki won the faceoff against Draisaitl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPerreault – Pezzetta – Poehling5:04
xG 0.88–0.30 (74%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Armia – Lehkonen – Pitlick7:09
xG 0.28–0.07 (81%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Anderson – Suzuki – Caufield12:23
xG 0.52–0.49 (51%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Hoffman – Gallagher – Dauphin8:48
xG 0.58–0.67 (46%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Kulak15:37
xG 1.37–0.72 (66%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Romanov14:23
xG 0.70–0.57 (55%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Wideman – Clague6:39
xG 0.13–0.46 (22%)attempts 1–8goals 1–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – McDavid – McLeod9:23
xG 0.66–0.42 (61%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Shore – Foegele – Ryan9:09
xG 0.32–0.13 (71%)attempts 8–2goals 0–1
- Kane – Draisaitl – Yamamoto10:02
xG 0.61–0.48 (56%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Turris – Benson – McLeod2:39
xG 0.00–0.31 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Nurse13:31
xG 0.73–0.50 (59%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Keith – Bouchard5:30
xG 0.57–0.36 (61%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Niemelainen – Broberg2:09
xG 0.07–0.03 (68%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).