Sun, Mar 6, 2022·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Los Angeles Kings 3, Buffalo Sabres 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 015 | 19 | 28 | 332 |
| BUF | 09 | 05 | 05 | 019 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 16:55LAKAndreas AthanasiouGWGAssists: Mikey Anderson, Arthur Kaliyev · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P3 19:01LAKAndreas AthanasiouENAssists: Alex Iafallo, Blake Lizotte · Wrist, 0.77 xG2–0
- P3 19:53LAKDustin BrownENAssists: Phillip Danault · Wrist, 0.66 xG3–0
Penalties (2)
- P1 10:43LAKDustin Brown: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:21BUFJohn Hayden: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Cozens
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestDanault – Arvidsson – Moore10:35
xG 0.92–0.32 (74%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Kempe – Anderson-Dolan14:47
xG 0.48–0.38 (56%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Brown – Iafallo – Byfield10:29
xG 0.12–0.19 (38%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Brown – Danault – Moore2:22
xG 0.01–0.10 (11%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMaatta – Roy17:52
xG 0.87–0.44 (67%)attempts 23–9goals 0–0
- Durzi – Bjornfot12:10
xG 0.09–0.17 (34%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Doughty – Anderson20:58
xG 0.73–0.90 (45%)attempts 17–19goals 1–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Tuch – Thompson10:39
xG 0.65–0.56 (54%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Eakin – Hinostroza – Hayden9:34
xG 0.17–0.18 (48%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Olofsson – Asplund – Krebs8:44
xG 0.16–0.22 (42%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Okposo – Mittelstadt – Cozens14:50
xG 0.14–0.54 (20%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPysyk – Hagg12:23
xG 0.51–0.20 (72%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Bryson – Dahlin19:10
xG 0.46–0.66 (41%)attempts 11–19goals 0–0
- Fitzgerald – Samuelsson16:17
xG 0.44–1.01 (30%)attempts 9–19goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).