Sun, Mar 6, 2022·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Seattle Kraken 2, Carolina Hurricanes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 011 | 210 | 09 | 230 |
| CAR | 09 | 212 | 112 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:12SEAAlexander WennbergPPAssists: Calle Jarnkrok, Yanni Gourde · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–0
- P2 7:10CARNino NiederreiterPPAssists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Seth Jarvis · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–1
- P2 8:16SEACalle JarnkrokAssists: Adam Larsson · Snap, 0.19 xG2–1
- P2 17:22CARTeuvo TeravainenPPAssists: Sebastian Aho, Vincent Trocheck · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–2
- P3 10:22CARMartin NecasGWGAssists: Brady Skjei, Brett Pesce · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:59CARAndrei Svechnikov: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:03CARNino Niederreiter: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 5:21SEAJoonas Donskoi: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:18SEAAlexander Wennberg: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 7:46CARSebastian Aho: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:18SEAJaden Schwartz: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kotkaniemi won the faceoff against Geekie
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestJarnkrok – Schwartz – Wennberg12:30
xG 0.65–0.30 (69%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Sheahan – Donskoi – Geekie9:29
xG 0.46–0.18 (72%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Blackwell – Gourde – Appleton10:46
xG 0.16–0.54 (23%)attempts 4–15goals 0–0
- Eberle – Johansson – McCann10:16
xG 0.03–0.48 (6%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Oleksiak17:51
xG 0.59–0.46 (57%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
- Giordano – Soucy11:07
xG 0.44–0.37 (54%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Soucy – Lauzon2:21
xG 0.04–0.03 (59%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Niederreiter – Fast10:48
xG 0.55–0.02 (97%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Aho – Svechnikov13:56
xG 0.66–0.13 (84%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- Lorentz – Kotkaniemi – Jarvis7:51
xG 0.02–0.28 (8%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Martinook – Necas11:09
xG 0.20–0.82 (20%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – Bear16:27
xG 0.78–0.43 (65%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Cole – Chatfield12:26
xG 0.46–0.30 (60%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Skjei – Pesce17:12
xG 0.60–0.47 (56%)attempts 18–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).