Sun, Mar 6, 2022·United Center, Chicago
Tampa Bay Lightning 6, Chicago Blackhawks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 08 | 310 | 314 | 632 |
| CHI | 18 | 111 | 18 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:51CHIDylan StromeAssists: Patrick Kane, Alex DeBrincat · Slap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 1:09TBLTaylor RaddyshAssists: Cal Foote, Mikhail Sergachev · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 6:09CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Brandon Hagel, Seth Jones · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 15:17TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov · Slap, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 16:48TBLCal FooteAssists: Anthony Cirelli, Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.25 xG3–2
- P3 1:51TBLVictor HedmanGWGAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Brayden Point · Slap, 0.03 xG4–2
- P3 2:04TBLCorey PerryUnassisted · Snap, 0.15 xG5–2
- P3 2:23TBLMikhail SergachevAssists: Ross Colton · Wrist, 0.02 xG6–2
- P3 7:05CHIAlex DeBrincatAssists: Dylan Strome · Tip-in, 0.17 xG6–3
Penalties (5)
- P2 9:54TBLRyan McDonagh: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 12:08TBLMikhail Sergachev: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 13:11CHIAlex DeBrincat: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:02TBLPierre-Edouard Bellemare: Holding2 min
- P3 17:49CHIRiley Stillman: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cirelli won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Point – Cirelli6:55
xG 0.50–0.04 (93%)attempts 9–1goals 2–1
- Joseph – Raddysh – Colton7:31
xG 0.20–0.04 (83%)attempts 8–4goals 2–0
- Killorn – Stamkos – Cirelli7:31
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Perry – Maroon – Bellemare10:56
xG 0.41–0.50 (45%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Foote2:57
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Sergachev – Rutta3:12
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Cernak10:19
xG 0.37–0.21 (64%)attempts 6–6goals 1–2
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestKane – Strome – DeBrincat7:18
xG 0.47–0.22 (68%)attempts 9–7goals 2–0
- Toews – Johnson – Kubalik2:45
xG 0.05–0.05 (53%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Toews – Johnson – DeBrincat6:24
xG 0.33–0.33 (50%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Kane – Kubalik – Strome9:07
xG 0.16–0.23 (41%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – Jones14:28
xG 0.44–0.34 (56%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
- Murphy – Jones12:46
xG 0.43–0.39 (52%)attempts 9–9goals 2–1
- Jones – Stillman2:21
xG 0.06–0.04 (62%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).