Sun, Mar 6, 2022·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Dallas Stars 6, Minnesota Wild 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 19 | 313 | 24 | 626 |
| MIN | 113 | 07 | 215 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:52MINNico SturmAssists: Nick Bjugstad, Brandon Duhaime · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 19:57DALJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Tyler Seguin, Ryan Suter · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 1:38DALJason RobertsonPPAssists: John Klingberg, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–1
- P2 3:13DALRiley TufteAssists: John Klingberg, Luke Glendening · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–1
- P2 9:52DALJason RobertsonGWGAssists: Roope Hintz, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–1
- P3 16:19MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Kevin Fiala, Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–2
- P3 18:03MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Jared Spurgeon · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–3
- P3 18:55DALJamie BennENAssists: Esa Lindell · Wrist, 0.43 xG5–3
- P3 19:28DALJason RobertsonENAssists: Roope Hintz · Wrist, 0.76 xG6–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:04MINMarcus Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P1 6:04DALRiley Tufte: Interference2 min
- P1 8:10DALJason Robertson: Interference2 min
- P1 19:02MINBrandon Duhaime: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 19:57MINMats Zuccarello: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min · PPG
- P2 6:07DALEsa Lindell: Interference2 min
- P2 16:54DALJohn Klingberg: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:58MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Interference2 min
- P3 6:05DALJohn Klingberg: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Faksa won the faceoff against Hartman
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRadulov – Faksa – Raffl7:13
xG 0.25–0.10 (72%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Benn – Seguin – Gurianov8:18
xG 0.24–0.41 (37%)attempts 6–14goals 0–1
- Glendening – Tufte – Kiviranta3:12
xG 0.00–0.29 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson8:23
xG 0.27–0.94 (23%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHakanpää – Harley2:21
xG 0.22–0.12 (65%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Harley5:21
xG 0.41–0.34 (55%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Lindell – Hanley2:01
xG 0.00–0.06 (8%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Fiala – Boldy5:26
xG 0.47–0.11 (80%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Duhaime – Sturm7:41
xG 0.72–0.43 (63%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov9:13
xG 0.28–0.05 (84%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Hartman – Dewar – Boldy2:00
xG 0.07–0.05 (59%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba14:44
xG 1.09–0.29 (79%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Spurgeon10:45
xG 0.50–0.04 (93%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Merrill11:58
xG 0.72–0.67 (52%)attempts 17–12goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).