Sun, Mar 6, 2022·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
New York Rangers 4, Winnipeg Jets 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 29 | 07 | 26 | 422 |
| WPG | 016 | 113 | 017 | 146 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:01NYRBarclay GoodrowAssists: Jacob Trouba, Filip Chytil · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 17:28NYRChris KreiderPPGWGAssists: Artemi Panarin, Adam Fox · Backhand, 0.17 xG2–0
- P2 13:34WPGNikolaj EhlersPPAssists: Andrew Copp, Neal Pionk · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 6:21NYRChris KreiderAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Alexis Lafrenière · Backhand, 0.17 xG3–1
- P3 9:32NYRJacob TroubaAssists: Artemi Panarin · Deflected, 0.00 xG4–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:59NYRRyan Lindgren: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:58NYRFilip Chytil: Holding2 min
- P1 15:05WPGDylan DeMelo: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:11WPGLogan Stanley: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 18:18NYRJacob Trouba: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:54NYRAlexis Lafrenière: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:48NYRJonny Brodzinski: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:00NYRPatrik Nemeth: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- Strome – Hunt – Panarin11:07
xG 0.09–0.17 (33%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Lafrenière8:49
xG 0.50–0.69 (42%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Goodrow – Brodzinski – Chytil7:15
xG 0.17–0.41 (30%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHajek – Schneider6:24
xG 0.19–0.07 (73%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Trouba – Miller12:33
xG 0.39–0.45 (46%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Fox – Lindgren11:50
xG 0.23–0.65 (26%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Stastny – Scheifele9:18
xG 0.73–0.44 (62%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Lowry – Copp – Ehlers8:33
xG 0.43–0.16 (73%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Connor – Svechnikov – Dubois9:59
xG 0.38–0.22 (63%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Toninato – Harkins – Vesalainen4:13
xG 0.00–0.04 (11%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMorrissey – Pionk3:05
xG 0.46–0.05 (90%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey12:04
xG 0.49–0.20 (71%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
- Dillon – Pionk9:45
xG 0.31–0.23 (57%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).