Tue, Mar 8, 2022·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Seattle Kraken 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 111 | 210 | 19 | 430 |
| TOR | 211 | 111 | 310 | 632 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:18TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: William Nylander, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 5:21SEACarson SoucyAssists: Mason Appleton, Colin Blackwell · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 9:55TORJohn TavaresAssists: Pierre Engvall, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 5:14TORWilliam NylanderPPAssists: TJ Brodie, Ondrej Kase · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–3
- P2 9:20SEAAlexander WennbergAssists: Marcus Johansson, Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
- P2 11:49SEAColin BlackwellSHAssists: Yanni Gourde · Snap, 0.28 xG3–3
- P3 5:57SEAJaden SchwartzAssists: Jeremy Lauzon, Calle Jarnkrok · Snap, 0.20 xG4–3
- P3 9:03TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Michael Bunting, Mitch Marner · Backhand, 0.11 xG4–4
- P3 9:43TORMitch MarnerPPGWGAssists: John Tavares · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–5
- P3 19:18TORAuston MatthewsENAssists: Timothy Liljegren · Wrist, 0.67 xG4–6
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:46SEAJoonas Donskoi: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 1:53SEAJeremy Lauzon: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:50SEAMark Giordano: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 10:52SEAMark Giordano: Cross checking2 min
- P2 14:03TORAlexander Kerfoot: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 17:31TORJohn Tavares: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 17:34SEAJared McCann: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:25TORTimothy Liljegren: Cross checking2 min
- P3 9:38SEACarson Soucy: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 16:20SEAJeremy Lauzon: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:20TORMichael Bunting: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wennberg won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestBlackwell – Gourde – Appleton9:16
xG 0.40–0.23 (63%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Eberle – Johansson – McCann5:31
xG 0.02–0.01 (68%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Johansson – Sheahan – Donskoi3:23
xG 0.16–0.21 (43%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Eberle – McCann – Geekie4:30
xG 0.01–0.28 (3%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Dunn – Lauzon12:38
xG 0.35–0.32 (52%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Giordano – Soucy12:24
xG 0.53–0.81 (39%)attempts 13–11goals 1–1
- Larsson – Oleksiak12:39
xG 0.18–0.77 (19%)attempts 7–16goals 1–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestBunting – Marner – Matthews11:21
xG 0.88–0.22 (80%)attempts 17–5goals 1–1
- Engvall – Kampf – Mikheyev7:23
xG 0.56–0.08 (87%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Kerfoot – Kase7:15
xG 0.16–0.25 (38%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Tavares – Nylander – Robertson7:45
xG 0.23–0.32 (41%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrodie – Holl13:52
xG 1.04–0.31 (77%)attempts 15–7goals 1–1
- Rielly – Liljegren12:33
xG 0.64–0.34 (65%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
- Dermott – Lyubushkin11:46
xG 0.21–0.51 (29%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).