Tue, Mar 8, 2022·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Vegas Golden Knights 1, Philadelphia Flyers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 94% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 014 | 117 | 017 | 148 |
| PHI | 28 | 08 | 05 | 221 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:44PHIJustin BraunAssists: Travis Konecny, Scott Laughton · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 19:09PHIOskar LindblomGWGAssists: Scott Laughton, Ivan Provorov · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 6:26VGKEvgenii DadonovPPAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:46PHITravis Sanheim: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:19PHIJoel Farabee: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:29VGKWilliam Carrier: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:05VGKBen Hutton: Cross checking2 min
- P2 5:47PHIZack MacEwen: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 12:50VGKNicolas Hague: Interference2 min
- P2 16:40PHIRasmus Ristolainen: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:31VGKNicolas Roy: Interference2 min
- P3 18:15PHIIvan Provorov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brassard won the faceoff against Karlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Karlsson – Marchessault9:22
xG 0.53–0.21 (72%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Pacioretty – Stephenson – Eichel7:02
xG 0.35–0.08 (82%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Stephenson – Amadio3:52
xG 0.34–0.13 (72%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Pacioretty – Eichel – Roy4:14
xG 0.30–0.26 (53%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Hutton7:10
xG 0.38–0.02 (96%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Pietrangelo – Hague3:47
xG 0.37–0.08 (82%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Hague – Whitecloud6:44
xG 0.28–0.02 (94%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- Brown – MacEwen – Mayhew5:36
xG 0.20–0.16 (56%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Giroux – Laughton – Konecny10:02
xG 0.36–0.43 (46%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Hayes – Lindblom8:06
xG 0.21–0.45 (32%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
- Brassard – Atkinson – Farabee6:54
xG 0.02–0.47 (3%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Yandle – Seeler8:19
xG 0.13–0.12 (52%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Braun – Provorov13:49
xG 0.08–0.52 (13%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
- Ristolainen – Sanheim13:42
xG 0.35–1.31 (21%)attempts 10–23goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 94% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).