Tue, Mar 8, 2022·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Florida Panthers 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 213 | 19 | 17 | 429 |
| PIT | 09 | 215 | 111 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:43FLASam ReinhartUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 14:38FLAAaron EkbladAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Carter Verhaeghe · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–0
- P2 3:07PITBryan RustAssists: Marcus Pettersson, Brian Dumoulin · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 3:16PITJake GuentzelAssists: Sidney Crosby · Snap, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 7:02FLAAnthony DuclairPPAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.25 xG3–2
- P3 11:11FLACarter VerhaegheGWGAssists: Maxim Mamin · Snap, 0.12 xG4–2
- P3 17:51PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Jeff Carter, Bryan Rust · Snap, 0.11 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 15:24FLASam Bennett: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:01PITJohn Marino: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 17:02PITMarcus Pettersson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:55FLARadko Gudas: Interference2 min
- P3 14:17FLAEetu Luostarinen: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hornqvist won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestReinhart – Marchment – Luostarinen9:35
xG 0.40–0.11 (79%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Verhaeghe – Barkov – Mamin8:19
xG 0.46–0.17 (73%)attempts 8–6goals 2–0
- Hornqvist – Vatrano – Acciari7:27
xG 0.24–0.47 (33%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
- Huberdeau – Duclair – Bennett8:02
xG 0.14–0.45 (24%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMontour – Carlsson8:37
xG 0.32–0.27 (55%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Gudas – Forsling14:04
xG 0.40–0.43 (49%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Montour – Forsling2:31
xG 0.04–0.16 (22%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rust – Guentzel12:28
xG 0.52–0.26 (67%)attempts 14–7goals 1–2
- Blueger – McGinn – Aston-Reese9:55
xG 0.50–0.39 (56%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Carter – Malkin – Heinen2:08
xG 0.03–0.11 (20%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Malkin – Kapanen – Heinen8:25
xG 0.24–0.43 (36%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRuhwedel – Friedman11:38
xG 0.83–0.31 (73%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Pettersson – Marino12:03
xG 0.35–0.27 (57%)attempts 8–10goals 1–1
- Letang – Dumoulin16:06
xG 0.53–0.61 (47%)attempts 15–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).