Tue, Mar 8, 2022·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
New York Rangers 2, Minnesota Wild 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 06 | 27 | 012 | 225 |
| MIN | 26 | 311 | 011 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:38MINRyan HartmanAssists: Kirill Kaprizov · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 14:41MINJoel Eriksson EkAssists: Marcus Foligno, Jordan Greenway · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 5:03NYRDryden HuntAssists: Ryan Strome, Artemi Panarin · Snap, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 8:07NYRMika ZibanejadSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–2
- P2 9:13MINKevin FialaPPGWGAssists: Matt Boldy, Marcus Foligno · Snap, 0.16 xG2–3
- P2 13:06MINMarcus FolignoAssists: Mathew Dumba, Jonas Brodin · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–4
- P2 17:44MINKevin FialaAssists: Mats Zuccarello · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–5
Penalties (1)
- P2 7:26NYRPatrik Nemeth: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestGoodrow – Chytil – Lafrenière6:22
xG 0.37–0.21 (64%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Strome – Hunt – Panarin15:17
xG 0.73–0.67 (52%)attempts 17–10goals 1–1
- Brodzinski – Gauthier – Gettinger4:26
xG 0.27–0.21 (57%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Gauthier – Chytil7:16
xG 0.08–0.05 (64%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Trouba – Miller18:44
xG 0.74–0.72 (51%)attempts 15–16goals 0–1
- Nemeth – Schneider17:28
xG 0.54–0.56 (49%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
- Fox – Lindgren15:18
xG 0.57–0.93 (38%)attempts 15–12goals 1–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov13:26
xG 1.06–0.29 (78%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Foligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek13:29
xG 0.73–0.27 (73%)attempts 11–5goals 2–0
- Gaudreau – Fiala – Boldy13:05
xG 0.38–0.38 (50%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Duhaime – Sturm9:36
xG 0.27–0.68 (28%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSpurgeon – Merrill20:00
xG 1.00–0.32 (76%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Brodin – Dumba19:43
xG 1.05–0.40 (72%)attempts 19–9goals 2–1
- Goligoski – Kulikov17:00
xG 0.48–0.67 (42%)attempts 12–22goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).