Tue, Mar 8, 2022·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Winnipeg Jets 7
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 311 | 04 | 19 | 424 |
| WPG | 312 | 011 | 410 | 733 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:19WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Logan Stanley, Nate Schmidt · Backhand, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 6:11WPGAdam LowryAssists: Brenden Dillon, Nikolaj Ehlers · Backhand, 0.18 xG0–2
- P1 11:50TBLRyan McDonaghAssists: Mathieu Joseph · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P1 14:36WPGPaul StastnyAssists: Neal Pionk, Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–3
- P1 16:01TBLAlex KillornAssists: Corey Perry, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–3
- P1 17:30TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Anthony Cirelli · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–3
- P3 7:25WPGPierre-Luc DuboisPPAssists: Kyle Connor, Josh Morrissey · Wrist, 0.36 xG3–4
- P3 9:16WPGKyle ConnorSHGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.15 xG3–5
- P3 14:48WPGJosh MorrisseyENAssists: Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.78 xG3–6
- P3 17:15TBLRoss ColtonAssists: Jan Rutta, Taylor Raddysh · Deflected, 0.03 xG4–6
- P3 17:29WPGPaul StastnyENAssists: Blake Wheeler, Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.60 xG4–7
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:09TBLCorey Perry: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:16WPGNeal Pionk: Holding2 min
- P2 14:47TBLAlex Killorn: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:17TBLMikhail Sergachev: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:38WPGJosh Morrissey: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:53TBLVictor Hedman: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 8:12WPGBrenden Dillon: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:40WPGNeal Pionk: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:40TBLAnthony Cirelli: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cirelli won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Point – Cirelli7:49
xG 0.70–0.39 (64%)attempts 5–6goals 1–1
- Killorn – Stamkos – Palat7:10
xG 0.43–0.36 (55%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Perry – Maroon – Bellemare7:48
xG 0.12–0.42 (22%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Joseph – Raddysh – Colton8:34
xG 0.03–0.35 (7%)attempts 2–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Cernak10:17
xG 1.08–0.47 (70%)attempts 11–7goals 1–1
- Hedman – Sergachev4:49
xG 0.22–0.17 (57%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- McDonagh – Bogosian2:01
xG 0.08–0.11 (42%)attempts 2–1goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLowry – Copp – Ehlers8:46
xG 0.89–0.23 (79%)attempts 11–3goals 1–0
- Connor – Svechnikov – Dubois10:09
xG 0.49–0.24 (68%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Toninato – Harkins – Vesalainen5:44
xG 0.09–0.05 (65%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
- Wheeler – Stastny – Scheifele11:31
xG 0.41–0.55 (43%)attempts 14–8goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – Pionk9:30
xG 0.97–0.20 (83%)attempts 17–3goals 2–0
- Schmidt – Stanley11:14
xG 0.67–0.18 (79%)attempts 15–6goals 1–1
- Dillon – DeMelo2:37
xG 0.15–0.06 (72%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).