Wed, Mar 9, 2022·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Washington Capitals 3, Edmonton Oilers 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 09 | 115 | 27 | 01 | 332 |
| EDM | 020 | 29 | 110 | 11 | 440 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:17WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Anthony Mantha, T.J. Oshie · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 12:01EDMKailer YamamotoPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 18:12EDMCody CeciAssists: Brad Malone, Derek Ryan · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–2
- P3 6:13WSHT.J. OshiePPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, John Carlson · Snap, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 10:31EDMBrad MaloneAssists: Zack Kassian, Evan Bouchard · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 19:58WSHT.J. OshieAssists: John Carlson, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Slap, 0.04 xG3–3
- OT 3:27EDMConnor McDavidGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:19WSHDmitry Orlov: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:25WSHMartin Fehérváry: Interference2 min
- P2 6:25EDMZach Hyman: Holding2 min
- P2 8:44EDMEvander Kane: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:33WSHAlex Ovechkin: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 13:56EDMWarren Foegele: Holding2 min
- P3 2:30WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:57EDMWilliam Lagesson: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dowd won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Kuznetsov – Sheary4:16
xG 0.27–0.13 (68%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Kuznetsov – Wilson – McMichael2:59
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Oshie – Backstrom – Mantha9:22
xG 0.51–0.44 (53%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Eller – Sheary – McMichael2:56
xG 0.02–0.03 (36%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Orlov3:42
xG 0.22–0.02 (91%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Schultz – Fehérváry2:32
xG 0.06–0.08 (44%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Carlson – Orlov2:08
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Draisaitl – McLeod11:54
xG 1.12–0.61 (65%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Kane – McDavid – Yamamoto11:44
xG 0.75–0.53 (59%)attempts 15–12goals 0–1
- Shore – Foegele – Ryan5:03
xG 0.10–0.06 (64%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Malone – Sceviour – Kassian4:48
xG 0.13–0.10 (57%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLagesson – Bouchard6:37
xG 0.87–0.11 (89%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Ceci – Nurse17:01
xG 1.33–0.69 (66%)attempts 20–15goals 1–0
- Keith – Broberg11:34
xG 0.09–0.27 (26%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).