Thu, Mar 10, 2022·TD Garden, Boston
Chicago Blackhawks 3, Boston Bruins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 110 | 13 | 112 | 325 |
| BOS | 18 | 29 | 119 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:12BOSCharlie CoyleAssists: Connor Clifton · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 6:41CHIAlex DeBrincatAssists: Patrick Kane · Snap, 0.20 xG1–1
- P2 4:12CHIBrandon HagelAssists: Jonathan Toews, Kirby Dach · Wrap-around, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 11:57BOSJack AhcanPPAssists: Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 15:23BOSDavid PastrnakPPAssists: Charlie McAvoy, Patrice Bergeron · Slap, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 3:24CHIBrandon HagelPPAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Dylan Strome · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–3
- P3 19:42BOSDavid PastrnakGWGAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Taylor Hall · Snap, 0.17 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:28BOSCharlie McAvoy: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:43BOSTrent Frederic: Holding2 min
- P2 6:55CHIHenrik Borgstrom: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:02CHIJake McCabe: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:31CHIConnor Murphy: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 1:25BOSCharlie Coyle: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 11:56CHIAlec Regula: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:56BOSTaylor Hall: Embellishment2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Coyle won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestToews – Hagel – Dach10:40
xG 0.35–0.27 (56%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Carpenter – Lafferty – Borgstrom8:39
xG 0.10–0.24 (28%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Johnson – Kubalik – Kurashev4:43
xG 0.05–0.41 (11%)attempts 1–8goals 0–1
- Kane – Strome – DeBrincat15:02
xG 0.34–0.80 (30%)attempts 11–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Stillman – Regula9:35
xG 0.19–0.14 (57%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- de Haan – Jones15:03
xG 0.40–0.71 (36%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Murphy – McCabe16:29
xG 0.31–0.99 (24%)attempts 11–21goals 1–2
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestHaula – Hall – Pastrnak11:25
xG 0.66–0.22 (75%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – DeBrusk10:07
xG 0.52–0.32 (62%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Smith – Coyle – Frederic10:37
xG 0.26–0.16 (62%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Foligno – Lazar – Nosek7:24
xG 0.16–0.17 (49%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestReilly – McAvoy15:19
xG 1.01–0.17 (85%)attempts 18–10goals 1–0
- Carlo – Ahcan11:58
xG 0.62–0.43 (59%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Forbort – Clifton11:03
xG 0.24–0.24 (50%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).