Tue, Apr 12, 2022·UBS Arena, Elmont
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, New York Islanders 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 115 | 219 | 110 | 03 | 0 | 447 |
| NYI | 314 | 07 | 114 | 02 | 1 | 537 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:52PITJake GuentzelAssists: Rickard Rakell, Sidney Crosby · Snap, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 9:10NYIZach ParisePPAssists: Mathew Barzal, Noah Dobson · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 12:03NYIZach PariseSHAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Adam Pelech · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P1 19:22NYIJosh BaileyUnassisted · Snap, 0.15 xG1–3
- P2 3:46PITDanton HeinenAssists: Kasperi Kapanen, Brian Boyle · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–3
- P2 18:32PITJake GuentzelAssists: Rickard Rakell, Chad Ruhwedel · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–3
- P3 2:49NYIJosh BaileyUnassisted · Backhand, 0.14 xG3–4
- P3 5:38PITJeff CarterPPAssists: Jake Guentzel, Sidney Crosby · Snap, 0.29 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. NYI Zach Parise stopped
- 2. PIT Jake Guentzel stopped
- 3. NYI Kyle Palmieri scored
- 4. PIT Sidney Crosby stopped
- 5. NYI Mathew Barzal stopped
- 6. PIT Kris Letang stopped
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:15PITMark Friedman: Interference2 min
- P1 1:25NYINoah Dobson: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:02NYIMatt Martin: Interference2 min
- P1 7:18PITJake Guentzel: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 11:35NYIOliver Wahlstrom: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:25NYIAnthony Beauvillier: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 5:42PITBrock McGinn: Tripping2 min
- OT 2:27NYIAnthony Beauvillier: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rakell – Guentzel14:08
xG 1.17–0.51 (69%)attempts 21–14goals 2–0
- Carter – Zucker – Kapanen7:09
xG 0.41–0.03 (93%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Carter – Zucker – Heinen7:28
xG 0.62–0.25 (71%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Blueger – McGinn – Rodrigues4:12
xG 0.28–0.02 (92%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRuhwedel – Friedman11:18
xG 0.79–0.15 (84%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Dumoulin – Marino17:19
xG 1.17–0.70 (63%)attempts 19–18goals 1–1
- Letang – Matheson17:46
xG 0.79–0.63 (56%)attempts 17–17goals 1–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestMartin – Cizikas – Johnston5:31
xG 0.24–0.19 (56%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Parise – Martin – Barzal2:21
xG 0.07–0.13 (35%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Bailey – Palmieri – Pageau10:08
xG 0.44–0.53 (46%)attempts 12–8goals 2–0
- Parise – Barzal – Wahlstrom7:16
xG 0.32–1.06 (23%)attempts 5–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Greene – Pulock3:08
xG 0.17–0.22 (43%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Pelech – Dobson3:04
xG 0.09–0.28 (24%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Chara – Pulock2:28
xG 0.02–0.25 (7%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).