Thu, Mar 10, 2022·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Tampa Bay Lightning 1, Calgary Flames 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 013 | 113 | 05 | 131 |
| CGY | 111 | 214 | 17 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:35CGYJohnny GaudreauPPAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Rasmus Andersson · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 15:40TBLAlex KillornAssists: Ross Colton, Mathieu Joseph · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 19:00CGYJohnny GaudreauGWGAssists: Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 19:52CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Erik Gudbranson, Trevor Lewis · Tip-in, 0.03 xG1–3
- P3 13:44CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Elias Lindholm, Rasmus Andersson · Snap, 0.10 xG1–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:35TBLMikhail Sergachev: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:07TBLOndrej Palat: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:50CGYNikita Zadorov: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 8:37CGYNikita Zadorov: Cross checking2 min
- P3 17:55TBLJan Rutta: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:01TBLSteven Stamkos: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:01TBLSteven Stamkos: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Bellemare
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Kucherov – Point12:13
xG 0.85–0.52 (62%)attempts 18–8goals 0–1
- Stamkos – Joseph – Colton2:01
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Killorn – Stamkos – Cirelli7:33
xG 0.37–0.56 (40%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Perry – Maroon – Bellemare8:49
xG 0.05–0.72 (7%)attempts 5–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Rutta6:44
xG 0.46–0.13 (78%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Cernak – Sergachev2:31
xG 0.34–0.18 (65%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Bogosian – Sergachev4:57
xG 0.57–0.42 (57%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk10:49
xG 0.92–0.40 (70%)attempts 13–7goals 2–1
- Toffoli – Mangiapane – Ruzicka8:49
xG 0.32–0.13 (71%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Lewis – Backlund – Coleman11:07
xG 0.32–0.45 (41%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
- Lucic – Monahan – Dube8:50
xG 0.29–0.46 (39%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Tanev – Kylington13:34
xG 0.40–0.46 (47%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
- Hanifin – Andersson15:38
xG 0.69–0.77 (47%)attempts 11–20goals 0–1
- Gudbranson – Zadorov15:29
xG 0.92–1.14 (45%)attempts 20–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).