Fri, Mar 11, 2022·UBS Arena, Elmont
Winnipeg Jets 2, New York Islanders 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 16 | 09 | 114 | 229 |
| NYI | 111 | 211 | 216 | 538 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:38NYIBrock NelsonPPAssists: Anthony Beauvillier, Noah Dobson · Slap, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 16:58WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Neal Pionk · Slap, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 1:09NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Kyle Palmieri · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 1:49NYIAnders LeeGWGAssists: Brock Nelson, Anthony Beauvillier · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 0:20WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Paul Stastny, Dylan DeMelo · Wrist, 0.41 xG2–3
- P3 7:14NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Adam Pelech, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Backhand, 0.22 xG2–4
- P3 15:16NYICal ClutterbuckENAssists: Casey Cizikas · Wrist, 0.48 xG2–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:48WPGKyle Connor: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:58WPGBlake Wheeler: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 3:04WPGJosh Morrissey: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:42NYIJosh Bailey: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:42WPGBrenden Dillon: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:32WPGMark Scheifele: Abuse of officials2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLowry – Copp – Ehlers7:07
xG 0.90–0.22 (80%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Toninato – Harkins – Vesalainen3:46
xG 0.29–0.03 (91%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Stastny – Scheifele16:24
xG 0.60–0.38 (62%)attempts 12–16goals 1–0
- Ehlers – Connor – Dubois4:42
xG 0.35–0.21 (63%)attempts 3–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey16:57
xG 1.52–0.61 (71%)attempts 21–14goals 1–0
- Morrissey – Pionk2:49
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Schmidt – Stanley11:51
xG 0.27–0.60 (31%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Palmieri – Pageau11:00
xG 0.78–0.17 (82%)attempts 16–7goals 2–0
- Lee – Nelson – Beauvillier12:08
xG 0.76–0.44 (63%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
- Parise – Barzal – Bellows11:18
xG 0.37–0.55 (40%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas9:21
xG 0.04–0.80 (5%)attempts 4–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Dobson13:46
xG 1.04–0.59 (64%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Greene – Pulock3:37
xG 0.07–0.00 (94%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Pelech3:50
xG 0.04–0.16 (20%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).