Fri, Mar 11, 2022·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Vegas Golden Knights 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 05 | 222 | 015 | 242 |
| PIT | 116 | 17 | 310 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:54PITMike MathesonAssists: Sidney Crosby, Bryan Rust · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 2:36PITJeff CarterAssists: Brock McGinn, Valtteri Puustinen · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–2
- P2 4:19VGKJack EichelAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Max Pacioretty · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 8:19VGKAlex PietrangeloAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Chandler Stephenson · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 3:49PITMark FriedmanGWGAssists: Brian Boyle, Jeff Carter · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 14:49PITBryan RustPPAssists: Jake Guentzel · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–4
- P3 17:43PITEvan RodriguesENAssists: Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.65 xG2–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:44VGKDylan Coghlan: High sticking2 min
- P1 12:57VGKMax Pacioretty: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:19PITMark Friedman: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:19VGKWilliam Carrier: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:43PITDanton Heinen: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:59PITJohn Marino: Interference2 min
- P3 14:10VGKWilliam Carrier: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestStephenson – Carrier – Roy8:02
xG 0.72–0.36 (67%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Stephenson – Leschyshyn – Rondbjerg2:12
xG 0.13–0.04 (76%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Karlsson – Amadio9:34
xG 0.32–0.24 (57%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Marchessault – Eichel – Kolesar3:20
xG 0.15–0.12 (55%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHutton – Coghlan12:02
xG 0.80–0.48 (62%)attempts 17–5goals 1–1
- Pietrangelo – Hague15:08
xG 0.29–0.36 (44%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Theodore – Whitecloud12:41
xG 0.27–0.73 (27%)attempts 7–14goals 0–2
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCarter – McGinn – Puustinen4:26
xG 0.38–0.17 (69%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Boyle – Blueger – Aston-Reese7:21
xG 0.15–0.14 (52%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Malkin – Heinen – Rodrigues9:58
xG 0.46–0.54 (46%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel13:51
xG 0.44–0.85 (34%)attempts 11–19goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Matheson17:04
xG 1.26–0.77 (62%)attempts 22–23goals 2–0
- Ruhwedel – Friedman11:09
xG 0.37–0.30 (55%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Friedman – Marino2:21
xG 0.02–0.10 (15%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).