Fri, Mar 11, 2022·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Washington Capitals 4, Vancouver Canucks 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 211 | 012 | 110 | 11 | 434 |
| VAN | 08 | 09 | 39 | 00 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:34WSHEvgeny KuznetsovAssists: Nick Jensen, T.J. Oshie · Deflected, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 6:17WSHEvgeny KuznetsovPPAssists: Alex Ovechkin, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.37 xG2–0
- P3 0:57VANQuinn HughesAssists: J.T. Miller, Elias Pettersson · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P3 3:19VANBo HorvatPPAssists: J.T. Miller, Quinn Hughes · Snap, 0.15 xG2–2
- P3 4:59VANBo HorvatAssists: Travis Hamonic, Quinn Hughes · Backhand, 0.18 xG2–3
- P3 15:07WSHEvgeny KuznetsovPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.27 xG3–3
- OT 0:42WSHLars EllerGWGAssists: John Carlson, Tom Wilson · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:53VANNils Hoglander: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 15:37WSHNic Dowd: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:43VANOliver Ekman-Larsson: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:46WSHLars Eller: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 13:37VANTyler Myers: Illegal check to head2 min · PPG
- P3 17:11WSHConor Sheary: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestEller – Wilson – McMichael11:52
xG 0.83–0.22 (79%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Oshie – Backstrom – Mantha12:32
xG 0.70–0.23 (75%)attempts 14–16goals 0–1
- Dowd – Hathaway – Jonsson-Fjallby9:42
xG 0.21–0.07 (74%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Sheary9:51
xG 0.54–0.65 (45%)attempts 10–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Jensen15:08
xG 1.13–0.41 (73%)attempts 21–11goals 1–0
- Carlson – Orlov2:26
xG 0.27–0.06 (82%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Schultz – van Riemsdyk11:46
xG 0.59–0.66 (47%)attempts 13–16goals 0–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestMotte – Lammikko – Highmore8:45
xG 0.54–0.13 (81%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Horvat – Boeser – Podkolzin4:37
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Miller – Pearson – Pettersson5:05
xG 0.27–0.20 (57%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Chiasson – Pettersson – Hoglander2:08
xG 0.16–0.21 (44%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Hughes7:58
xG 0.30–0.25 (55%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Hunt5:32
xG 0.37–0.53 (41%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
- Hamonic – Hughes10:22
xG 0.31–0.47 (40%)attempts 9–11goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).