Sat, Mar 12, 2022·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
St. Louis Blues 7, Nashville Predators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 313 | 110 | 312 | 735 |
| NSH | 111 | 314 | 010 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:35STLDavid PerronPPAssists: Torey Krug, Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 7:23STLBrandon SaadAssists: Robert Thomas, Jordan Kyrou · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
- P1 17:42STLRobert ThomasPPAssists: Brandon Saad, Jordan Kyrou · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–0
- P1 18:34NSHMatt DucheneAssists: Filip Forsberg, Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–1
- P2 3:44NSHRyan JohansenPPAssists: Matt Duchene, Roman Josi · Slap, 0.08 xG3–2
- P2 8:14NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Alexandre Carrier · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–3
- P2 11:38STLTorey KrugAssists: Mackenzie MacEachern, Tyler Bozak · Slap, 0.02 xG4–3
- P2 12:17NSHMatt DucheneAssists: Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–4
- P3 17:22STLRobert ThomasGWGAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.10 xG5–4
- P3 18:03STLDavid PerronENAssists: Brayden Schenn, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.72 xG6–4
- P3 18:27STLJustin FaulkENAssists: Robert Thomas · Wrist, 0.52 xG7–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:35STLMackenzie MacEachern: Roughing2 min
- P1 5:33NSHRyan Johansen: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 16:18NSHRoman Josi: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:24STLIvan Barbashev: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:08STLBrayden Schenn: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:38NSHRyan Johansen: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sissons won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBozak – MacEachern – Toropchenko7:35
xG 0.92–0.12 (88%)attempts 15–4goals 1–1
- Saad – Barbashev – Brown7:08
xG 0.40–0.25 (62%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Kyrou – Thomas10:17
xG 0.27–0.28 (50%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Perron – O'Reilly – Schenn12:33
xG 0.21–1.15 (16%)attempts 6–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Krug14:12
xG 1.39–0.56 (71%)attempts 19–14goals 2–2
- Bortuzzo – Mikkola9:46
xG 0.27–0.23 (54%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Faulk – Mikkola3:03
xG 0.00–0.20 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Johansen – Forsberg11:34
xG 0.78–0.32 (71%)attempts 16–9goals 2–1
- Sissons – Trenin – Jeannot10:44
xG 0.80–0.40 (66%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Granlund – Kunin – Tolvanen11:16
xG 0.24–0.40 (38%)attempts 7–9goals 0–2
- Cousins – McCarron – Tomasino9:04
xG 0.22–0.68 (24%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Fabbro17:11
xG 0.84–0.50 (63%)attempts 19–12goals 0–0
- Ekholm – Carrier14:50
xG 1.01–0.86 (54%)attempts 16–11goals 1–1
- Josi – Benning2:00
xG 0.04–0.06 (37%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).