Sat, Mar 12, 2022·American Airlines Center, Dallas
New York Rangers 7, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 414 | 18 | 27 | 729 |
| DAL | 211 | 113 | 19 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:49DALEsa LindellAssists: Joel Hanley · Backhand, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 4:53DALTyler SeguinAssists: Joel Kiviranta, Esa Lindell · Tip-in, 0.06 xG0–2
- P1 9:45NYRGreg McKeggAssists: K'Andre Miller, Julien Gauthier · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–2
- P1 12:59NYRMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Ryan Strome, Artemi Panarin · Slap, 0.07 xG2–2
- P1 14:14NYRAdam FoxAssists: Jacob Trouba, Artemi Panarin · Tip-in, 0.17 xG3–2
- P1 14:50NYRArtemi PanarinAssists: K'Andre Miller, Dryden Hunt · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–2
- P2 7:10DALJason RobertsonPPAssists: John Klingberg, Roope Hintz · Deflected, 0.22 xG4–3
- P2 18:20NYRPatrik NemethGWGAssists: Artemi Panarin, Dryden Hunt · Wrap-around, 0.07 xG5–3
- P3 8:09DALJoe PavelskiAssists: Roope Hintz, John Klingberg · Tip-in, 0.08 xG5–4
- P3 14:07NYRBarclay GoodrowAssists: Filip Chytil · Wrist, 0.04 xG6–4
- P3 18:23NYRRyan StromeENAssists: Dryden Hunt, Artemi Panarin · Wrist, 0.69 xG7–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 12:52DALRoope Hintz: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 0:47DALRadek Faksa: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:12NYRRyan Lindgren: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 6:46NYRJonny Brodzinski: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Glendening
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Zibanejad – Lafrenière12:15
xG 0.40–0.35 (54%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Brodzinski – Chytil11:32
xG 0.46–0.42 (52%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Strome – Hunt – Panarin13:54
xG 0.83–0.85 (49%)attempts 12–13goals 2–2
- McKegg – Goodrow – Gauthier2:59
xG 0.01–0.26 (2%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Miller17:02
xG 0.44–0.24 (65%)attempts 11–9goals 2–1
- Fox – Hajek2:42
xG 0.31–0.22 (59%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- Hajek – Schneider2:39
xG 0.00–0.30 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Seguin – Gurianov10:50
xG 0.70–0.52 (58%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson12:02
xG 0.49–0.32 (61%)attempts 15–5goals 2–2
- Radulov – Peterson – Kiviranta3:32
xG 0.42–0.32 (57%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Glendening – Faksa – Raffl9:30
xG 0.26–0.43 (38%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLindell – Hanley10:47
xG 0.71–0.35 (67%)attempts 8–8goals 2–2
- Klingberg – Harley14:57
xG 0.84–0.81 (51%)attempts 17–13goals 1–2
- Hakanpää – Hanley2:31
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).