Sat, Mar 12, 2022·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Detroit Red Wings 0, Calgary Flames 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 01 | 04 | 014 | 019 |
| CGY | 119 | 012 | 212 | 343 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:22CGYElias LindholmPPGWGAssists: Rasmus Andersson, Matthew Tkachuk · Tip-in, 0.04 xG0–1
- P3 8:25CGYTyler ToffoliPPAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–2
- P3 15:38CGYBlake ColemanAssists: Chris Tanev, Michael Stone · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:31DETMarc Staal: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:08CGYNikita Zadorov: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:07DETVladislav Namestnikov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 9:51CGYSean Monahan: Boarding2 min
- P3 9:51CGYMilan Lucic: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:51DETGivani Smith: Fighting5 min
- P3 15:38DETFilip Zadina: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNamestnikov – Larkin – Raymond11:16
xG 0.73–0.25 (75%)attempts 18–5goals 0–0
- Erne – Suter – Zadina8:28
xG 0.07–0.51 (12%)attempts 6–16goals 0–0
- Gagner – Vrana – Veleno10:25
xG 0.07–0.54 (11%)attempts 4–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Staal – Stecher8:41
xG 0.08–0.16 (34%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Leddy – Seider14:44
xG 0.58–0.85 (41%)attempts 15–20goals 0–0
- Oesterle – Hronek13:58
xG 0.20–0.85 (19%)attempts 12–24goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestLewis – Backlund – Coleman12:29
xG 0.94–0.20 (83%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Lucic – Monahan – Dube7:17
xG 0.41–0.05 (89%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Mangiapane – Ruzicka9:03
xG 0.38–0.22 (64%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk11:59
xG 0.58–0.48 (55%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Zadorov15:02
xG 0.79–0.10 (89%)attempts 25–5goals 0–0
- Hanifin – Andersson17:09
xG 0.75–0.50 (60%)attempts 21–12goals 0–0
- Stone – Tanev14:59
xG 0.61–0.43 (58%)attempts 15–20goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).