Sun, Mar 13, 2022·UBS Arena, Elmont
Anaheim Ducks 3, New York Islanders 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 112 | 114 | 116 | 342 |
| NYI | 313 | 19 | 07 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:18NYIZach PariseAssists: Mathew Barzal · Backhand, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 9:48ANAJosh MansonAssists: Buddy Robinson · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–1
- P1 19:31NYIKyle PalmieriAssists: Josh Bailey, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P1 19:56NYIAnders LeeAssists: Ryan Pulock, Anthony Beauvillier · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–3
- P2 14:23ANAIsac LundeströmAssists: Hampus Lindholm, Jamie Drysdale · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–3
- P2 17:25NYIKyle PalmieriGWGAssists: Scott Mayfield, Josh Bailey · Snap, 0.09 xG2–4
- P3 18:16ANAAdam HenriqueAssists: Troy Terry, Trevor Zegras · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
- P2 0:59ANAJosh Manson: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:17NYICasey Cizikas: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:17ANATrevor Zegras: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:22NYICasey Cizikas: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:01ANADerek Grant: Boarding2 min
- P3 9:42NYIZach Parise: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:34ANAJosh Manson: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:34NYIRoss Johnston: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Carrick
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestHenrique – Terry – Comtois10:19
xG 1.09–0.25 (81%)attempts 16–7goals 0–1
- Milano – Lettieri – Zegras11:31
xG 0.73–0.19 (79%)attempts 18–4goals 0–1
- Deslauriers – Carrick – Robinson4:17
xG 0.48–0.46 (51%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Grant – O'Regan – Lundeström6:37
xG 0.04–0.36 (9%)attempts 2–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Manson15:50
xG 1.15–0.55 (68%)attempts 19–11goals 1–2
- Lindholm – Drysdale11:28
xG 0.67–0.16 (80%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Fowler2:17
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestParise – Barzal – Wahlstrom6:26
xG 0.78–0.20 (80%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Clutterbuck – Cizikas – Johnston5:58
xG 0.11–0.34 (24%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Lee – Nelson – Beauvillier11:09
xG 0.24–0.52 (31%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
- Bailey – Palmieri – Pageau9:17
xG 0.35–0.93 (27%)attempts 7–17goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Dobson13:10
xG 0.83–0.57 (59%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Mayfield – Pelech3:25
xG 0.12–0.33 (27%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Pelech – Pulock13:07
xG 0.33–0.87 (27%)attempts 5–18goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).