Sun, Mar 13, 2022·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Nashville Predators 6, Minnesota Wild 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 15 | 213 | 37 | 625 |
| MIN | 19 | 111 | 08 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:24NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Dante Fabbro, Matt Duchene · Tip-in, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 13:03MINMatt BoldyAssists: Frederick Gaudreau, Kevin Fiala · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 8:44NSHRoman JosiAssists: Philip Tomasino, Nick Cousins · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 11:10MINJordan GreenwayAssists: Marcus Foligno · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 12:00NSHPhilip TomasinoGWGAssists: Nick Cousins, Michael McCarron · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–2
- P3 1:05NSHRoman JosiPPAssists: Mikael Granlund, Filip Forsberg · Slap, 0.03 xG4–2
- P3 17:42NSHFilip ForsbergENAssists: Matt Duchene, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.72 xG5–2
- P3 19:31NSHNick CousinsENAssists: Michael McCarron, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.76 xG6–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:48MINMarcus Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:48NSHLuke Kunin: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:51NSHRyan Johansen: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:58MINJon Merrill: Interference2 min
- P2 3:32MINMatt Boldy: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:11NSHColton Sissons: Interference2 min
- P2 19:48MINJared Spurgeon: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 5:27NSHMattias Ekholm: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dewar won the faceoff against Sissons
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestCousins – McCarron – Tomasino6:18
xG 0.34–0.03 (92%)attempts 5–7goals 2–0
- Duchene – Johansen – Forsberg10:28
xG 0.44–0.46 (49%)attempts 7–17goals 1–2
- Sissons – Trenin – Jeannot10:35
xG 0.09–0.14 (39%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Granlund – Kunin – Tolvanen8:08
xG 0.13–0.20 (39%)attempts 3–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Fabbro11:47
xG 0.52–0.29 (64%)attempts 11–12goals 2–2
- Harpur – Carrier2:19
xG 0.15–0.02 (87%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
- Ekholm – Carrier13:33
xG 0.30–0.23 (57%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Fiala – Boldy11:34
xG 0.32–0.07 (83%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Foligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek8:07
xG 0.30–0.08 (78%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov9:49
xG 0.41–0.50 (45%)attempts 21–6goals 0–2
- Bjugstad – Duhaime – Dewar9:15
xG 0.09–0.27 (25%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Spurgeon13:13
xG 0.35–0.24 (59%)attempts 19–7goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Merrill15:34
xG 0.30–0.30 (49%)attempts 19–7goals 0–1
- Brodin – Dumba14:00
xG 0.42–0.64 (40%)attempts 17–14goals 2–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).