Sun, Mar 13, 2022·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Vancouver Canucks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 215 | 011 | 05 | 231 |
| VAN | 011 | 014 | 111 | 136 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:26TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Patrick Maroon, Pierre-Edouard Bellemare · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 5:06TBLRoss ColtonGWGAssists: Corey Perry · Snap, 0.16 xG2–0
- P3 5:54VANJ.T. MillerAssists: Conor Garland, Tanner Pearson · Snap, 0.20 xG2–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:41TBLMikhail Sergachev: Cross checking2 min
- P2 1:21VANTyler Myers: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 4:10TBLPatrick Maroon: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:10VANLuke Schenn: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:15TBLRyan McDonagh: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:15VANConor Garland: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Bellemare – Raddysh4:10
xG 0.57–0.16 (78%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Palat – Point – Cirelli11:59
xG 0.53–0.23 (70%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Killorn – Stamkos – Kucherov12:40
xG 0.68–0.56 (55%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Joseph – Raddysh – Colton2:51
xG 0.02–0.04 (31%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Rutta11:53
xG 1.19–0.39 (75%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Cernak – Sergachev13:41
xG 0.54–0.43 (56%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- McDonagh – Cernak3:11
xG 0.04–0.01 (88%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestHorvat – Boeser – Hoglander2:10
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Motte – Lammikko – Highmore2:38
xG 0.03–0.04 (48%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Highmore – Hoglander3:41
xG 0.16–0.22 (41%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Miller – Pearson – Garland11:24
xG 0.33–0.43 (43%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Ekman-Larsson14:14
xG 0.57–0.35 (62%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Hughes2:06
xG 0.23–0.12 (66%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Schenn – Hunt10:43
xG 0.33–0.40 (45%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).