Tue, Mar 15, 2022·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Dallas Stars 0, Toronto Maple Leafs 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 013 | 013 | 09 | 035 |
| TOR | 210 | 018 | 212 | 440 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:22TORRasmus SandinGWGAssists: Mitch Marner, John Tavares · Backhand, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 11:16TORJohn TavaresAssists: William Nylander, Timothy Liljegren · Deflected, 0.07 xG0–2
- P3 0:52TOROndrej KasePPAssists: Morgan Rielly, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–3
- P3 18:36TORIlya MikheyevENAssists: Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.49 xG0–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 19:45TORIlya Lyubushkin: Holding2 min
- P2 3:10TORMichael Bunting: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 7:03DALMichael Raffl: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:12TORMichael Bunting: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:54DALRoope Hintz: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hintz won the faceoff against Kampf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- Faksa – Raffl – Gurianov3:56
xG 0.21–0.18 (53%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Benn – Seguin – Gurianov5:10
xG 0.22–0.26 (45%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Glendening – Studenic – Kiviranta8:05
xG 0.23–0.58 (28%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Radulov – Faksa – Raffl4:58
xG 0.07–0.50 (12%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Harley16:07
xG 1.26–0.85 (60%)attempts 18–20goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Hanley2:22
xG 0.43–0.04 (92%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Hakanpää – Hanley4:45
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Bunting – Marner10:27
xG 1.52–0.28 (85%)attempts 17–5goals 1–0
- Engvall – Kampf – Mikheyev9:19
xG 0.73–0.21 (78%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Spezza – Clifford – Kase8:27
xG 0.33–0.66 (33%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Nylander – Robertson8:24
xG 0.32–0.91 (26%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLiljegren – Sandin12:58
xG 1.25–0.50 (72%)attempts 20–10goals 2–0
- Brodie – Holl16:29
xG 0.94–0.30 (75%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
- Rielly – Lyubushkin13:03
xG 1.10–0.97 (53%)attempts 19–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).