Tue, Mar 15, 2022·Madison Square Garden, New York
Anaheim Ducks 3, New York Rangers 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 16 | 110 | 17 | 00 | 323 |
| NYR | 17 | 111 | 119 | 11 | 438 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:29NYRJonny BrodzinskiAssists: Filip Chytil, Braden Schneider · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 14:05ANAMaxime ComtoisAssists: Troy Terry, Adam Henrique · Tip-in, 0.19 xG1–1
- P2 3:06NYRMika ZibanejadAssists: Adam Fox, Artemi Panarin · Slap, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 4:53ANACam FowlerPPAssists: Adam Henrique · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 10:35ANADerek GrantAssists: Danny O'Regan · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–2
- P3 13:40NYRChris KreiderPPAssists: Adam Fox, Artemi Panarin · Backhand, 0.08 xG3–3
- OT 0:55NYRAdam FoxGWGAssists: Artemi Panarin, Mika Zibanejad · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 16:19ANASam Carrick: Holding2 min
- P1 19:46NYRRyan Lindgren: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 4:41NYRJacob Trouba: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 17:18NYRRyan Strome: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:53ANAMaxime Comtois: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Zegras
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestDeslauriers – Carrick – Robinson8:12
xG 0.54–0.12 (82%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Henrique – Terry – Comtois11:51
xG 0.57–0.16 (78%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Milano – Lettieri – Zegras12:57
xG 0.50–0.31 (61%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Grant – O'Regan – Lundeström8:25
xG 0.36–0.41 (47%)attempts 4–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Benoit10:33
xG 1.10–0.48 (70%)attempts 10–12goals 1–1
- Fowler – Sustr18:19
xG 0.39–0.32 (55%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Drysdale16:35
xG 0.38–0.39 (49%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestStrome – Hunt – Panarin14:11
xG 0.64–0.25 (72%)attempts 19–6goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Brodzinski – Chytil10:43
xG 0.50–0.27 (65%)attempts 14–6goals 1–1
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Lafrenière11:51
xG 0.19–0.52 (26%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Reaves – McKegg – Gauthier7:42
xG 0.09–0.71 (11%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Lindgren17:13
xG 0.74–0.37 (67%)attempts 21–8goals 0–0
- Trouba – Miller15:53
xG 0.14–0.79 (15%)attempts 5–13goals 0–1
- Nemeth – Schneider13:38
xG 0.21–0.92 (18%)attempts 12–8goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).